Canadian Marijuana Shortage: How It's Impacting Pot Stocks and When It Will End

加拿大大麻市场出现供应短缺情况,大麻股受影响出现下跌

2019-02-13 16:02:00 PROFIT

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One of the biggest stories post-Canadian marijuana legalization is the supply shortage. The Canadian marijuana shortage has stolen headlines, hurt sales, and put a slight damper on what was otherwise a very successful rollout for pot in Canada. Pot stocks, as a result, have taken a bit of a hit, but this is a temporary problem with a solution well in sight. While there is an undeniable marijuana supply shortage in Canada, that has much more to do with regulation than the growers themselves. Health Canada projects that marijuana consumption will hit 926,000 kilograms a year for both the recreational markets and the medical markets. (Source: “Canada’s cannabis shortage could be over quicker than we thought, researcher says,” Financial Post, February 1, 2019.) Compared to the production capacity of some of the industry’s top producers—like Aurora Cannabis Inc (NYSE:ACB), which has stated that it can produce up to 500,000 kilograms per year when all its facilities are up and running—that’s a paltry amount. Combined, marijuana companies are more than equal to the task of providing enough marijuana to satisfy the demand—and that demand is high. 7,252 kilograms of dried cannabis was sold in December 2018 alone, as well as 7,127 liters of oil sold in both the recreational and medical markets. However, medical patients bought far more oil than recreational consumers. (Source: Ibid.) Despite all the readily available supply (or at least, soon-to-be readily available supply), we’re still seeing the Canadian marijuana industry stumble a bit out of the gate. In Ontario, for instance, they have yet to open a single retail location. The first ones won’t pop up until April. Even then, there will only 25 to start, servicing the most populous and richest province in the country. Other measures have been taken to combat the Canadian marijuana shortage, like Quebec (the second most populous province) limiting the number of days that its government-run store is open to help counteract the lack of supply. Newfoundland, meanwhile, has seen a permanent closure due to its lack of supply at one of its six privately owned storefronts. (Source: “Cannabis store in Newfoundland closes, blames lack of supply,” Global News, January 30, 2019.) This raises the question: with so many marijuana producers able to provide cannabis products for consumers, how did we get this shortage? Frankly, much of the problem was on the bureaucratic side of things. For instance, in the weeks leading up to legalization, producers aired their complaints regarding packaging and labeling. They claimed they were having trouble keeping pace with the schedule due to a compulsory excise stamp that had to be delivered by the Canada Revenue Agency and applied to each individual product. The supplier of the stamps fell behind and the stamps themselves came without glue, necessitating the manual application of each stamp. These types of silly oversights are unfortunate but also not unexpected when a country takes on a big overhaul of its marijuana laws. But those weren’t the only holdups. As is usually the case, politics played a big part in the rollout of Canadian marijuana legalization. In Ontario, for instance, the provincial Liberal government was supplanted by the Conservative Party just a few short months before the election. The shift in government preceded a shift in marijuana policy that ended up delaying Ontario marijuana storefronts. Under the Liberal Party, Ontario was meant to have a government monopoly on physical retail spaces for marijuana—at least, to start. This is typical for the province, which already maintains a government-run monopoly on alcohol sales (although that monopoly has been loosening lately). The Conservative Party—tending to be the more business-friendly party—rolled back that plan and released its own plan to license private retailers. The shift, however, came too late and too close to legalization, leading to the delay. While these are all, in the grand scheme of thing, minor hiccups, they have had consequences for marijuana stocks. Take a look at the performances of three marijuana industry leaders in the months following legalization: Canopy Growth Corp (NYSE:CGC) in black, Aurora Cannabis Inc (NYSE:ACB) in blue, and Cronos Group Inc (NASDAQ:CRON) in red. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com Brightfield Group, LLC, a cannabis research firm, downgraded its Canadian marijuana market projections, which briefly sent many pot stocks into the gutter. Brightfield reassessed the Canadian market to be worth $5.0 billion by 2021 due to weaker-than-expected sales so far in Canada. (Source: “Cannabis industry to be worth just $5 billion by 2021 amid flat rollout, high costs,” Financial Post, February 6, 2019.) From Canadian recreational marijuana legalization in October to the end of 2018, total cannabis sales (including medical) totaled about $210.0 million, which forced the research group to pare down its projection to $5.0 billion from $8.0 billion. Bethany Gomez, managing director of Brightfield Group, said: (Source: Ibid.) This was influenced heavily by the Canadian marijuana shortage, as well as Canadians still relying on cheaper black market sales versus higher costs of legalized pot. But it’s not all doom and gloom. In fact, the Canadian marijuana shortage may be a blessing in disguise. You see, marijuana sales are naturally going to spike following legalization—look no further than the OrganiGram Holdings Inc (OTCMKTS:OGRMF, CVE:OGI) stock surge that took place following its latest quarterly report. But due to the Canadian marijuana shortage, we’re seeing a slower start to sales than expected. The flip side is that the numbers are still strong enough to spur growth, with the added bonus that they’ll only get bigger once the industry finds its footing with its supply. This gives us a nice runway to have increasingly impressive sales numbers that will ramp up with each successive financial report, leading to strong gains for months to come. Ultimately, the Canadian marijuana shortage is a blip on the radar. While it may impact sales now, it is being dealt with and should be a thing of the past within the next six months to a year. As the nascent recreational marijuana market matures, expect to see efficiency and sales grow in tandem. In the meantime, look out for strong financial reports to help spur growth among pot stocks.
加拿大大麻合法化后最大的新闻之一是供应短缺。加拿大的大麻短缺已经偷走了头条新闻,损害了销售,并对原本在加拿大非常成功的大麻推广造成了轻微的影响。 因此, Pot 股票受到了一些冲击,但这是一个很好的解决方案的暂时问题。尽管加拿大的大麻供应存在不可否认的短缺,但这与监管比种植者本身更相关。 加拿大卫生部预计,娱乐市场和医疗市场每年的大麻消费量将达到926000公斤。(资料来源:“研究人员表示,加拿大大麻短缺的速度可能比我们想象的要快得多,”英国《金融时报》2019年2月1日报道。 与业内一些顶级生产商——比如奥罗拉(Aurora) Cannabis Inc ( NYSE : ACB )——的产能相比,这一数字微不足道。 Aurora Cannabis Inc ( NYSE : ACB )曾表示,当其所有设施投入运行时,每年可生产高达50万公斤的产品。 总之,大麻公司的任务就是提供足够的大麻来满足需求,而且需求很高。 仅在2018年12月就售出7252公斤的干大麻,以及娱乐和医疗市场销售的7212升石油。然而,医疗患者购买的石油远远超过娱乐消费者。(资料来源: Ibid ) 尽管所有现成的供应(或者至少是很快就能得到的供应),我们仍然看到加拿大大麻产业的发展步履蹒跚。 例如,在安大略省,他们还没有开设一个单一的零售场所。第一批货要到四月才能上市。即使到那时,也只有25个省需要启动,为全国人口最多、最富裕的省份提供服务。 加拿大还采取了其他措施来解决大麻短缺问题,比如魁北克(人口第二多的省份),限制政府经营的大麻商店开放的天数,以帮助减少供应不足。 与此同时,纽芬兰六家私营店面中的一家供应不足,导致其永久关闭。(来源:“纽芬兰的大麻商店关门,归咎于供应不足,” Global News ,2019年1月30日。) 这就提出了一个问题:由于有这么多大麻生产商能够为消费者提供大麻产品,我们如何解决这一短缺问题? 坦率地说,大部分问题都是在官僚主义方面。 例如,在合法化前的几周,生产商就包装和标签发表了抱怨。他们声称,由于必须由加拿大税务局交付并适用于每种产品的强制性消费税邮票,他们难以跟上时间表。 邮票的供应商落在后面,邮票本身没有胶水,需要手工应用每枚邮票。 这些愚蠢的疏忽是不幸的,但当一个国家对其大麻法律进行重大改革时,也并非意外。 但这些并不是唯一的阻碍因素。与通常的情况一样,政治在加拿大大麻合法化的推行中发挥了重要作用。 例如,在安大略省,在选举前几个月,保守党取代了该省的自由党政府。 政府的转变之前,大麻政策的转变最终推迟了安大略省的大麻商店。 在自由党( Liberal Party )的领导下,安大略省原本打算让政府垄断大麻的实体零售空间——至少要开始。这是该省的典型情况,该省已经保持了政府对酒精销售的垄断(尽管这种垄断最近有所放松)。 保守党倾向于成为更有利于商业的政党,它回滚了这个计划,并发布了自己的计划,以授权私人零售商。然而,这种转变来得太晚,而且太接近合法化,导致了拖延。 尽管这些都是大计划中的小问题,但它们对大麻库存产生了影响。 看看三位大麻行业领袖在合法化后的几个月里的表现:大麻增长公司( NYSE : CGC )是黑人,奥罗拉(Aurora) Cannabis 公司( NYSE : ACB )是蓝色的, Cronos 集团( NASDAQ : CRON )是红色的。 股票图表的礼节.com 大麻研究公司 Brightfield Group , LLC 下调了其对加拿大大麻市场的预测,该公司曾短暂地将许多大麻股票送进了垃圾桶。 到2021年, Brightfield 重新评估了加拿大市场价值50亿美元,因为到目前为止,加拿大市场的销售额低于预期。(资料来源:“到2021年,大麻产业的价值将仅为50亿美元,而推出速度平平,成本高昂,”金融邮报,2019年2月6日)。 从加拿大10月份的娱乐大麻合法化到2018年底,大麻的总销售额(包括医疗)约为2.1亿美元,这迫使该研究集团将其预测从80亿美元下调至50亿美元。 Brightfield Group 董事总经理 Bethany Gomez 说: (资料来源: Ibid ) 这在很大程度上受到了加拿大大麻短缺的影响,而且加拿大人仍然依赖廉价的黑市销售,而不是大麻合法化的成本上升。 但并不是所有的厄运和悲观。事实上,加拿大大麻短缺可能是一种伪装的祝福。 你看,大麻销售自然会在合法化后激增——看看 OrganiGram 控股公司( OTCMKTS : OGRMF , CVE : OGI )在其最新季度报告之后的股价飙升吧。 但由于加拿大大麻短缺,我们看到销售开始慢于预期。另一方面,这些数据仍然足够强劲,足以刺激经济增长,额外的好处是,只有在行业找到供应的基础后,它们才会变得更大。 这为我们提供了一个良好的跑道,让我们拥有越来越多令人印象深刻的销售数据,这些数据将随着每一份连续的财务报告而上升,导致未来几个月的强劲增长。 最终,加拿大的大麻短缺是雷达上的一个小插曲。虽然它现在可能影响销售,但它正在处理,应该是过去在未来6个月至一年。 随着新兴的休闲大麻市场的成熟,预计效率和销售额将同步增长。与此同时,寻找强劲的财务报告,以帮助刺激股市的增长。

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