We have big news coming out of Europe in the marijuana news today, as the European Union parliament voted on a resolution to encourage the adoption of medical marijuana regulation across the largest economic market in the world.
Now, before we get ahead of ourselves, there are some very important caveats.
First of all, this is not an EU marijuana legalization law. In fact, the EU parliament is, despite being the democratically elected body of the organization, often considered one of the weaker arms of the EU.
Furthermore, the EU is limited in its ability to enforce laws across the borders of its member states, usually only having power to regulate the single market that they share through monetary policy with the euro and other mechanisms.
However, despite those corollaries, there is still a lot to be excited about here. Namely that the EU has basically adopted a resolution throwing its support behind medical marijuana. (Source: Ibid.)
The EU has a population of about 500 million people and a gross domestic product (GDP) on par with the United States. If we were to see a major push across the EU to legalize medical marijuana, the spike in stock prices would be similar to that of a U.S. marijuana legalization push—which is to say, it would be massive.
So for marijuana bulls, this is great news.
Now, this is only the groundwork, but it’s a foundational piece of progress that will likely lead to a greater degree of acceptance for marijuana across the single market. And that’s where things get really interesting.
While the marijuana trade is a global one, each country tends to have its own regulations and laws regarding pot.
If the EU adopts some sort of wide-reaching, universal policy when it comes to marijuana, our favorite pot stocks would have a much easier time gaining access to the wider market rather than have to conform to each individual state’s laws.
This would be a huge boon for marijuana stocks and see shares easily grow by dozens, maybe even hundreds of percentage points.
It’s worth noting that medical marijuana sales have begun to flag across the already open markets. If the EU opens up for business, this would be a shot in the arm for medical marijuana stocks.
The EU’s move came following the World Health Organization recommending that marijuana be rescheduled.
The takeaway here is that the global marijuana market is expanding each and every day. Should the EU find its teeth on the issue and is able to encourage a widespread adoption of medical marijuana laws, I expect the jump in share prices would not be unlike the lead-up to Canadian marijuana legalization.
Watch out for any news on this front, as it could be the biggest event in 2019 for pot stocks.
Despite the excitement on the political side of the marijuana news today, the pot stock market was anything but exciting this morning.
Most pot stocks saw little or no movement to start the day, following what was an overall downturn in the marijuana industry over the past several days.
Cronos Group Inc (NASDAQ:CRON) is one of the few companies to have seen any gains at all, jumping a little over a point in early-morning trading today. CRON stock, however, is down about three percent over the past five days.
This is a consolidation period, however, as the massive gains in January are going to be offset somewhat by a slowdown or a correction. So far, we’re seeing a modest slowdown, which is the better of the two options.
This could continue on for a few weeks or a month, but I expect that we’ll see gains return before then.
Of course, the industry could also take a wider turn by way of a correction due to the massive jump pot stocks experienced in January, but I don’t believe that will be the case. If a correction was in the near future, I feel we would have felt it by now.
At the same time, good news is always potentially around the corner, ready to spark gains in the industry.
Aurora Cannabis Inc (NYSE:ACB) dropped about 0.5% in early-morning trading today, and finds itself down eight percent over the past five days.
The drop is the result of a slightly disappointing financial report (but one that I believe ultimately signals growth moving forward).
Net revenue hit CA$54.2 million, up 83% from the last quarter and a whopping 363% from a year before. While those numbers may seem stellar, they weren’t all that unexpected. Canadian marijuana legalization helped spark a huge sales boost, as you would expect. (Source: “Aurora Cannabis Announces Financial Results for the Second Quarter of Fiscal 2019,” Aurora Cannabis Inc, February 11, 2019.)
The problem is that the company also registered huge losses. Despite the massive surge in revenue, the company saw a loss of CA$237.8 million in the quarter. A year ago, Aurora had earning profits of CA$7.7 million. The previous quarter had the company netting a CA$105.5 million profit.
Ultimately, investors were less than pleased with the numbers. They weren’t bad enough to sink ACB stock too badly, but it still stands out as a missed opportunity for big gains.
Another company experiencing little to no movement to start the day, Canopy Growth Corp (NYSE:CGC), has one key difference: its quarterly report is set to be released today.
I’ve been very positive on CGC stock to start the year, and I believe that Canopy Growth’s quarterly report could be a huge boon to the company.
But there is some risk there as well. Should it show massive losses like ACB stock, expect CGC stock to fall.
On the flip side, it will almost certainly show massive revenue gains, and without any mitigating factors, that should be enough to drive growth.
Analysts are anticipating that Canopy Growth Corp was likely the biggest winner of the Canadian marijuana market, capturing a good chunk of the market. Some are putting that number as high as 30% and claiming that Canopy is the largest provider in Canada so far. (Source: “Canopy expected to capture biggest share of Canadian pot market,” BNN Bloomberg, February 14, 2019.)
In any case, watch for the earnings release later today.
The performances of CRON stock (black line), ACB stock (blue line), and CGC stock (red line) over the past week are seen on the chart below:
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
The marijuana news today featured monumental developments in Europe—and boredom on the stock market.
Still, things are heading in the right direction, and if the EU enacts any sort of concrete laws regarding marijuana, expect the pot stock market to be anything but boring.
然而，尽管有这些推论，这里仍然有很多令人兴奋的地方。也就是说，欧盟基本上通过了一项决议，支持医用大麻。(资料来源： Ibid )
欧盟人口约5亿，国内生产总值（ GDP ）与美国相当。如果我们看到欧盟各国大力推动医用大麻合法化，那么股价的飙升将类似于美国大麻合法化的推动——也就是说，这将是巨大的。
Cronos Group Inc ( NASDAQ : CRON )是少数几家完全实现盈利的公司之一，今日早盘交易略有上涨。然而， CRON 的股票在过去五天下跌了约3%。
奥罗拉（Aurora） Cannabis Inc ( NYSE : ACB )在今日早盘交易中下跌约0.5%，并发现自己在过去五天下跌了8%。
净收入达到5420万加元，同比增长83%，同比增长363%。虽然这些数字看起来很突出，但并不是所有这些都出人意料。正如你所预期的那样，加拿大大麻合法化有助于刺激巨大的销售增长。（来源：“ Aurora Cannabis 宣布2019财年第二季度财务业绩，”奥罗拉（Aurora） Cannabis Inc .，2019年2月11日）。
最终，投资者对这些数字不太满意。它们的表现还不够糟糕，不足以让 ACB 的股票跌得太糟，但它仍然是一个错失大收益的机会。
另一家刚刚起步的公司 Canopy Growth Corp ( NYSE : CGC )有一个关键区别：其季度报告定于今日发布。
从今年开始，我对 CGC 股票一直非常看好，我相信 Canopy Growth 的季度报告可能会给公司带来巨大好处。
但也存在一些风险。如果出现像 ACB 股票那样的巨额亏损，预计 CGC 股票将下跌。
分析师预计， Canopy Growth Corp 可能是加拿大大麻市场的最大赢家，占据了市场的很大份额。一些人认为这个数字高达30%，并声称 Canopy 是加拿大迄今为止最大的供应商。（来源：“ Canopy 预计将占据加拿大大麻市场的最大份额，” BNN Bloomberg ，2019年2月14日）。
CRON 股票（黑线）、 ACB 股票（蓝线）、 CGC 股票（红线）在过去一周的表现见下表：