Better Buy: Amgen vs. Gilead Sciences

吉利德 VS 安进,更高的股息率 VS 更强劲的增长动力

2019-03-18 07:50:10 Motley Fool


Two of the biggest biotechs with exceptional track records now find themselves at a crossroads of sorts. Amgen is dealing with falling sales for several key products. Gilead Sciences has a new CEO whose mission is to turn things around after several years of sinking revenue and earnings. Amgen has beat Gilead in stock performance over the last 12 months. But which of these two biotech stocks is the better pick for investors now? Here's how Amgen and Gilead compare in several key areas. The good news for Amgen is that its revenue and earnings continue to grow. The bad news is that the company has some serious issues to address. Sales are falling for four of its top seven best-selling products, including No. 1 Enbrel and No. 2 Neulasta. Amgen should still be able to generate growth over the next few years. Sales continue to climb for already-approved drugs including Prolia, Kyprolis, Parsabiv, and Aimovig. Amgen also has a solid biosimilar program. Murdo Gordon, Amgen's head of global commercial operations, stated in the company's Q4 conference call that Amgen expects its biosimilars "to contribute significantly to Amgen's growth." However, Amgen's growth over the next five years is likely to be weak. Gilead Sciences, on the other hand, hasn't been growing its top or bottom lines. But the company thinks that it could return to growth as soon as this year. Gilead's problem has been its hepatitis C virus (HCV) franchise. Now, though, the biotech expects HCV sales to stabilize. At the same time, Gilead's HIV revenue should grow thanks to new drugs like Biktarvy. The company has experienced some setbacks with its pipeline. Selonsertib failed to meet the primary endpoint in one late-stage study for treating nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). However, Gilead awaits the results from another pivotal NASH study of the drug. It's also having to wait on safety study results before filing for approval of promising immunology drug filgotinib. Most biotechs don't pay dividends. Both Amgen and Gilead are exceptions. Amgen's dividend currently yields 3.2%. The biotech has increased its dividend by nearly 84% over the last five years. Gilead's dividend yield stands at 4.03%. The company has grown its dividend by 47% over the last five years. Can each company's nice dividends keep flowing? Probably so. Both Amgen and Gilead continue to generate strong cash flows. It seems likely that both companies will retain strong dividend programs and keep the dividend hikes coming. Amgen stock trades at a little over 12 times expected earnings. Gilead's forward earnings multiple of nine is even more attractive. Gilead also claims a lower enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio than Amgen does -- 7.5 and 9.4, respectively. Gilead Sciences beats Amgen when it comes to dividend yield. It also has a more attractive valuation than Amgen does. The big question mark, though, is growth. Amgen has more potential drivers for growth, for sure. Although Gilead's growth prospects are iffier, the company could see its sales and earnings increase on a year-over-year basis if not this year in 2020.  It also remains to be seen which direction Gilead's new CEO, Daniel O'Day, takes the biotech. Gilead's core focus throughout its entire history has been on antiviral programs. O'Day has an oncology background. Overall, though, my view is that Gilead Sciences gets the nod ever so slightly. I would be more enthusiastic about Gilead if selonsertib had been successful in its first late-stage NASH study. While that didn't happen, I remain cautiously optimistic about the biotech's long-term prospects.
两个有着特殊记录的最大的生物技术公司现在发现自己正处在不同的十字路口。安进(Amgen)公司正在应对几种关键产品销量下滑的问题。吉利德科学(Gilead Sciences)有一位新的首席执行官,他的使命是在多年收入和收入下滑后扭转局面。 安进(Amgen)在过去12个月的股票表现超过了吉利德(Gilead)。但这两种生物技术股票中,哪一种更适合投资者选择?这里是安进(Amgen)和吉列在几个关键领域的比较。 安进(Amgen)的好消息是它的收入和收入继续增长。坏消息是公司有一些严重问题需要解决。该公司前七大畅销产品中,有四个产品的销量正在下降,其中包括1号 Enbrel 和2号 Neulasta 。 未来几年,安进(Amgen)仍应能够实现增长。包括 Prolia 、 Kyprolis 、 Parsabiv 和 Aimovg 在内的已获批药物的销量继续攀升。安进(Amgen)也有一个固体生物生物仿制药程序。Amgen 全球商业运营主管 Murdo Gordon 在公司第四季度电话会议上表示, Amgen 预计其生物仿制药类似物“将对安进(Amgen)的增长做出显著贡献”。然而,安进(Amgen)未来五年的增长很可能是疲弱的。 另一方面,吉利德科学(Gilead Sciences)并没有增长其收入或利润。但该公司认为,最早可能在今年恢复增长。吉利德(Gilead)的问题一直是其丙肝病毒( HCV )的专营权。但现在,生物技术预计 HCV 的销售将稳定下来。同时,由于比克托维等新药的出现,吉利德(Gilead)的艾滋病毒收入应该会增加。 该公司在管道方面遇到了一些挫折。Selonertib 未能达到治疗非酒精性脂肪性肝炎( NASH )的晚期研究的主要终点。然而,吉利德(Gilead)等待着另一个关键的 NASH 药物研究的结果。它还需要等待安全研究结果,才能申请批准前景免疫药物丝氨酸。 大多数生物技术公司没有分红。安进(Amgen)和吉列都是例外。 安进(Amgen)公司目前的股息收益率为3.2%。在过去的五年里,这家生物技术公司的股息增长了近84%。吉利德(Gilead)的股息率为4.03%。在过去五年里,公司的股息增长了47%。 每一家公司的丰厚红利能否持续流动?也许是这样。安进(Amgen)和吉利德(Gilead)都继续产生强劲的现金流。看来这两家公司都将继续实施强有力的分红计划,并继续增加派息。 安进(Amgen)股票的预期市盈率略高于12倍。吉利德(Gilead)9倍的预期市盈率更具吸引力。吉利德(Gilead)还声称企业价值与 EBITDA 比率低于安进(Amgen),分别为7.5%和9.4%。 在股息率方面,吉利德科学(Gilead Sciences)公司比安进(Amgen)公司强。它的估值也比安进(Amgen)更具吸引力。不过,最大的问题是增长。 当然,安进(Amgen)有更多的潜在增长动力。尽管吉利德(Gilead)的增长前景并不明朗,但如果2020年不是今年,该公司的销售额和盈利将同比增长。 吉利德(Gilead)的新 CEO Daniel O'Day 负责生物技术,这一点还有待观察。吉利德(Gilead)在整个历史上的核心重点一直是抗病毒程序。 O'Day 有肿瘤学背景。 不过,总体而言,我认为吉利德科学(Gilead Sciences)获得了如此轻微的点头。如果 selonertib 在其第一个后期 NASH 研究中获得成功,我会对吉利德(Gilead)更加热情。虽然这种情况没有发生,但我仍然对生物技术的长期前景持谨慎的乐观态度。