5 biotech stocks that could be the next big winners

五个值得关注的生物制药股票: SAGE , CELG , EXEL , CRSP , VRTX , PBYI

2019-03-26 08:15:00 MarketWatch


By Biotech stocks are some of the most exciting investments on Wall Street. When one company develops a successful treatment for a complex condition, shares can surge overnight and attract buyout interest from Big Pharma. But when a drug trial fails, it can go down in flames. Case in point: Biotech giant Biogen BIIB, -4.48%  imploded roughly 30% on Thursday after announcing it is canceling its Alzheimer’s drug efforts after poor drug trials. It fell again on Friday. For those skittish of that kind of lurch, there are a few ETFs to diversify your investment and smooth out some of the bumps. The $8.2 billion iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB, -3.39%  and the $4.4 billion SPDR S&P Biotech ETF XBI, -4.42%  are the two most popular. However, the iShares ETFis up only about 4% in the last 12 months and the SPDR ETF is up only 2% while the broader S&P 500 SPX, -1.90%  has a return of 8% in the same period — so diversification is not exactly a recipe for success. The bottom line is you have to pick your spots based on either high-potential drug trials or the likelihood of an acquisition. It’s a risky business, to be sure. But if you’re interested in rolling the dice in biotech, here are five stocks worth researching: For some investors, the success story of Sage Therapeutics SAGE, -0.80% is old news. Shares have skyrocketed more than 60% year-to-date thanks to approval for a postpartum depression treatment. However, in many ways, the story of Sage is only in the early chapters. Shares are actually down modestly from their early 2018 peak of more than $180, hit around the time the company announced positive results for an insomnia drug trial. That’s in part because even after this postpartum drug success, analysts have reservations about a slow rollout and the fact that Sage is going it alone, without a Big Pharma heavyweight by its side. That means fewer resources for marketing and distribution, and of course the risk of competition. But Sage is a first-mover here, and it has plenty of other drugs in the pipeline to prove its not a one-trick pony. These include not just sleep treatments but also a depression treatment that analysts project could generate $2 billion in sales by 2026. All biotech stocks are risky. But there’s a lot to like about this one — and its recent approval should inspire confidence. Many investors already know Celgene CELG, -1.65% a $63 billion biotech giant that is no longer a small, development-stage drugmaker but instead a major player projected to book $17 billion in revenue this year. Unlike Sage, however, the bloom is off the Celgene rose. Shares are only up by low single-digits over this time in 2018, and are down more than 25% from their 2017 highs after weak earnings and guidance late that year created questions about its product pipeline that have lingered like a black cloud. But one other thing has also lingered in recent months — the chance of a buyout from Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY, -1.55%  after a $74 billion bid in January. The previous deal was for one share of Bristol-Myers Squibb stock plus $50 in cash for each share of Celgene. There is still uncertainty over what final terms this time might be, or whether management and shareholders will ultimately go for the deal at all. But an important recommendation from proxy advisers as early as this week is likely to set a clear course for the deal. There’s a chance this could still all fall apart. But the hard reality is that Bristol-Myers Squibb announced some tough news from the FDA in October on some of its drugs and could really use Celgene products to broaden its portfolio, and the nature of Big Pharma is to only get bigger. Bristol-Myers Squibb may not have a choice but to close this deal — and if it doesn’t, I still like Celgene as one of the heavyweights of biotech for the long run. Midsize biotech Exelixis EXEL, -4.37%  has the impressive returns you want to see in a fast-moving momentum stock, with shares up more than 400% since the start of 2016. However, a look at the chart shows a period of consolidation across 2018 as investors lost interest — followed by what looks like the beginning of a new wave higher that began in late 2018 and has continued this year. That’s because Exelixis’ flagship cancer drug, Cabometyx, received FDA approval in January for additional use cases. This on the heels of almost $620 million in revenue from Cabometyx in 2018, up more than 70% from 2017, is a great sign. Adding to optimism are comments from CEO Michael Morrissey on an earnings call in February that highlighted plans for acquisitions, licensing deals and other efforts to add new products to the mix to pad the company’s pipeline Shares have momentum in 2019, up more than 20% year-to-date, but remain below their all-time high reached in January 2018. Given recent successes, there’s every reason to expect Exelixis can get back to where it was around $30 a share — 25% upside from here — and perhaps power higher if headlines stay positive. One of the first big names among gene-editing stocks Crispr Therapeutics CRSP, -6.00%  has been a part of the sometimes controversial discussion about this next-gen medical technology for years now. Born out of the Broad Institute, a genomics partnership between MIT and Harvard, Crispr has a lot of the appeal that biotech investors are looking for, given its ambitious treatment plans using cutting-edge technology. The first-mover advantages Crispr has over late entrants to gene editing are noteworthy. The company already has a potential cure for sickle cell disease, and in October the FDA removed its clinical hold on the therapy. Then in January, Crispr announced the treatment received fast-track status that allows more frequent and timely review of trial data to help with bringing the product to market sooner rather than later. That fast-track designation was announced in partnership with $47 billion biotech player Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX, -0.56% Elsewhere in the pipeline are gene therapies for rare cancers, blood disorders and other conditions. It’s an exciting time for this subset of biotech, and Crispr clearly is one of the top names to watch -- particularly after its 30% return so far in 2019. Puma Biotechnology PBYI, -3.37% is an interesting investment to consider. Instead of suffering a sharp decline after a failed trial, Puma stock has suffered despite FDA approval thanks to what investors see as a failure to roll out its new drug fast enough or with enough fanfare. Puma exploded higher in 2015 thanks to positive results for a breast cancer treatment, soaring to an all-time high of roughly $270 a share. But sales didn’t materialize as dramatically as some had hoped. When revenue growth dried up, as reported in November, the stock plunged more than 30% in a single session. It’s now worth taking another look at the stock. Projections for FY2019 include revenue growth of about 18%, with another 24% in FY2020 as marketing and sales finally get up to full speed. Furthermore, Puma has a long history with Big Pharma, including early drug trials conducted with Pfizer PFE, -1.18%  in 2010 that established good relationships — and increase the likelihood that some larger player may see Puma as a bargain with a proven drug it can plug into its existing distribution. This is not a company that failed to develop a cure, just a company that failed to live up to initial hype. The fact that shares have bounced back an impressive 90% so far in 2019 from recent lows is a sign that the initial selloff may have been too hasty. Jeff Reeves writes about investing for MarketWatch. He has no holdings in any securities mentioned in this column. Jeff Reeves is a stock analyst who has been writing for MarketWatch since 2010.
由。 生物技术股票是华尔街最令人兴奋的投资之一。当一家公司在复杂的条件下成功地进行治疗时,股价会在一夜之间飙升,并吸引大制药公司的收购兴趣。 但是当药物试验失败的时候,它就会燃烧起来。案例分析:生物技术巨头百健(Biogen) BIIB ,-4.48% 周四,在宣布因药物试验不佳而取消阿兹海默症的药物治疗后,该公司股价暴跌了约30%。周五又跌了一次。 对于那些令人毛骨悚然的投资者来说,有几只 ETF 可以让你的投资多样化,并消除一些波动。价值82亿美元的 iSharesNasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB ,-3.39% 以及44亿美元的 SPDR S & P 生物技术 ETF XBI ,-4.42% 是最受欢迎的两个。然而,在过去12个月里, iShares ETFis 仅上涨了约4%, SPDR ETF 仅上涨了2%,而标准普尔500指数( S & P 500)涨幅更大 SPX ,-1.90% 同期回报率为8%,因此多元化并不是成功的秘诀。 底线是你必须根据高潜力的药物试验或收购的可能性来选择你的斑点。 当然,这是一项风险很大的业务。但如果你对生物技术领域的冒险感兴趣,这里有五种值得研究的股票: 对于一些投资者来说, Sage Therapeutics 的成功故事 SAGE ,-0.80% 是旧新闻。由于批准了产后抑郁症治疗,该公司股价今年以来飙升了60%以上。 然而,在许多方面,萨奇的故事只是在早期章节。实际上,该公司股价较2018年初逾180美元的峰值略有下降,当时该公司宣布了失眠药物试验的积极结果。 这在一定程度上是因为,即使是在产后的药物成功之后,分析人士对缓慢的上市以及 Sage 独自经营的事实持保留态度,而没有一家大型制药公司的重量级公司。这意味着营销和分销资源的减少,当然也意味着竞争的风险。 但 Sage 在这里是个先驱者,它还有很多其他的药物在准备中,以证明它不是一个单招小马。这些措施不仅包括睡眠治疗,还包括抑郁症治疗,分析人士预测,到2026年,抑郁症治疗将产生20亿美元的销售额。 所有生物技术股票都有风险。但这件事有很多相似之处——最近的批准应该会激发人们的信心。 许多投资者已经知道新基(Celgene) CELG ,-1.65% 一个价值630亿美元的生物技术巨头,不再是一个小规模的、处于发展阶段的制药商,而是一个预计今年收入将达到170亿美元的大公司。 然而与赛奇不同的是,这朵花是由赛金玫瑰开放的。2018年这段时间,苹果股价只上涨了个位数,较2017年的高点下跌了25%以上。此前,该公司盈利疲弱,今年晚些时候发布的业绩指引令人对其产品管道产生了疑问,这些产品管道就像一片黑云一样一直存在。 但另一件事在最近几个月也一直存在——从百时美施贵宝( Bristol-Myers Squibb )收购的可能性 BMY ,-1.55% 在一月份出价740亿美元之后。 之前的交易是购买百时美施贵宝(Bristol-Myers Squibb)股票的一股,外加新基(Celgene)每股50美元现金。目前还不确定这一次的最终条款是什么,或者管理层和股东最终是否会参与这笔交易。但代理顾问最早在本周提出的一项重要建议,可能会为这笔交易设定明确的方向。 有可能这一切都会破裂。但现实困难在于,百时美施贵宝公司( Bristol-Myers Squibb )去年10月宣布了一些有关其某些药物的艰难消息,并可能真正利用新基(Celgene)产品扩大其产品组合,而大制药公司的性质只会变得更大。百时美施贵宝(Bristol-Myers Squibb)可能没有选择,但要完成这笔交易——如果没有,我仍然希望新基(Celgene)长期成为生物技术的重量级公司之一。 中型生物技术 Exelixis EXEL ,-4.37% 拥有令人印象深刻的回报,你希望看到在一个快速移动的动力股票,股票上涨超过400%,自2016年初。 然而,从图表来看,随着投资者失去兴趣,整个2018年都出现了一段整合期——随后,从2018年末开始并延续到今年的新一轮上涨似乎开始了。 这是因为 Exelixis 的旗舰抗癌药物 Cabometyx 在1月份获得了 FDA 的批准,用于更多的使用病例。在此之前, Cabometyx 2018年的收入接近6.2亿美元,较2017年增长了70%以上,这是一个很好的迹象。 更令人乐观的是,首席执行官迈克尔•莫里西( Michael Morrissey )在2月份的一次业绩电话会议上发表的评论,该电话会议强调了收购计划、许可协议以及其他为增加新产品组合以改善公司渠道而做出的努力 2019年股市走势强劲,今年迄今上涨逾20%,但仍低于2018年1月创下的历史高点。考虑到最近的成功,有充分的理由期望 Exelixis 能够回到每股30美元左右的水平——从这里上涨25%——如果新闻标题保持正面,那么可能会更高。 基因编辑公司 Cripr Therapeutics 是最早的大公司之一 CRSP ,-6.00% 多年来一直是关于这种下一代医疗技术的争论的一部分。Crisppr 出生于麻省理工学院和哈佛大学的基因组学合作伙伴 Broad Institute ,由于其雄心勃勃的利用尖端技术的治疗计划,生物技术投资者正在寻找许多吸引力。 克里斯普在基因编辑方面的先发优势值得注意。该公司已经有可能治愈镰状细胞疾病,并在10月, FDA 取消其临床上的坚持治疗。然后在一月, Crispr 宣布治疗收到了快速的状态,允许更频繁和及时的审查试验数据,以帮助使产品上市更早而不是更晚。 这一快速指定是宣布与470亿美元的生物技术播放器福泰(Vertex)制药公司合作 VRTX ,-0.56% ——如果事情进展顺利,这是收购意向的一个有力迹象。 在其他的管道是基因治疗罕见的癌症,血液紊乱和其他条件。这是一个令人兴奋的时刻,这一子集的生物技术,和克里斯普显然是一个最值得关注的名字之一,特别是在它30%的回报率到2019年到目前为止。 Puma Biotechnology PBYI ,-3.37% 是值得考虑的一项有趣的投资。在一次失败的试验后, Puma 的股价并没有大幅下跌,尽管 FDA 批准,但由于投资者认为该公司的新药未能足够快地推出,或者没有足够大的宣传力度, Puma 的股票还是遭受了损失。 由于乳腺癌治疗取得了积极成果,彪马在2015年的股价飙升至约每股270美元的历史高点。但销售额并没有像一些人希望的那样大幅增长。正如去年11月报道的那样,当收入增长枯竭时,该股在一个交易日内暴跌了30%以上。 现在值得再看一看股票。2019财年的预测包括收入增长18%左右,而在2020财年,随着营销和销售最终全面提速,这一数字还将增长24%。 此外, Puma 与大型制药公司有着悠久的历史,包括与辉瑞(Pfizer)公司进行的早期药物试验 PFE ,-1.18% 在2010年建立了良好的关系,并增加了一些较大的玩家可能将彪马视为与已证实的药物讨价还价的可能性,它可以插入其现有的分布。 这并不是一家没有开发出治愈方法的公司,而是一家未能经受住最初炒作的公司。2019年迄今股价已从最近的低点反弹了令人印象深刻的90%,这表明最初的抛售可能过于仓促。 JeffReeves 为 MarketWatch 撰写了关于投资的文章。他没有持有本专栏提及的任何证券。 JeffReeves 是一位股票分析师,自2010年以来一直在为 MarketWatch 撰写文章。