reported slim sales for its December quarter, analysts at Canaccord Genuity downgraded the stock to a Sell. This morning’s note by analysts Matt Bottomley and Bobby Burleson cite the stock’s sky-high multiple and fretted at Cronos’s slow start in Canada’s recreational cannabis market.
On the Nasdaq, Cronos stock (ticker: CRON) is down 11% today, to $18.08. That is still well above the analysts’ price target of $12.68.
While the sales of Canada’s other prominent producers ranged from $15 million to $60 million in the December quarter—the first in which the country allowed recreational sales to adults—Cronos managed just $4 million in sales of both medical and recreational pot. That even missed the low-bar of Canaccord’s forecast for $5 million.
Barron’s sought comment from Cronos on the downgrade, but got no response.
The analysts also note that Cronos’s average selling price for dried bud and oil in the quarter was 5.39 Canadian dollars (US$4.00), which lagged behind its peer group average of C$6.50. Low quarter-end inventories of US$9 million, with only about $1 million worth of finished goods, didn’t bode well for this quarter’s sales, say the Canaccord gents.
Because of Cronos’s “relatively slow start out of the gate in the [Canadian] rec market,” the analysts slashed their sales forecasts for the company. Canaccord now foresees 2019 sales and cash flow coming in at $84 million and $16 million, respectively, instead of the previously-forecast $132 and $41 million. For 2020, the analysts now predict $178 million in revenue and $64 million in cash flow.
(CGC) and Aurora Cannabis
(ACB), Cronos has seen its stock trade as high as $25 after tobacco giant Altria Group plunked down $1.8 billion for a 45% stake—a price that represented 12 bucks a share.
“Cronos has seen its share price almost double as one of only two licensed producers to receive a significant equity investment from a global strategic partner,” write Bottomley and Burleson. Even at yesterday’s price of 20 bucks, they note, Cronos was trading at nearly 92-times their estimate for 2020 cash flow. By contrast, cannabis rivals with better levels of recreational sales are trading at about 40-times estimated 2020 cash flows.
That is too rich a premium, even for the industry bulls at Canaccord.
Canaccord Genuity 的分析师报告称，该公司去年第四季度的销售业绩不佳，将该公司股票评级下调至卖出。今天上午，分析师马特•波托姆利( Matt Bottomcley )和博比•伯莱森( Bobby Burleson )的报告列举了该股的天价市盈率，并对克罗诺斯在加拿大休闲大麻市场起步缓慢感到担忧。
在纳斯达克， Cronos 股票（股票代码： CRON ）今天下跌11%，至18.08美元。这仍远高于分析师12.68美元的价格目标。
去年12月，加拿大其他知名生产商的销售额在1500万至6000万美元之间，这是该国首次允许成年人进行娱乐销售，而克罗诺斯在医疗和娱乐大麻的销售额中仅占400万美元。这甚至错过了 Canaccord 500万美元的最低预期。
Barron 寻求 Cronos 对降级发表评论，但没有得到回应。
分析师还指出， Cronos 在该季度干芽和石油的平均售价为5.39加元（合4.00美元），落后于同行6.50加元的平均售价。Canaccord gents 表示，季度末库存较低的900万美元（仅有约100万美元的成品）并不预示着本季度的销售情况良好。
由于克罗诺斯“在（加拿大） rec 市场起步相对缓慢”，分析师下调了对该公司的销售预期。Canaccord 现在预计，2019年的销售额和现金流分别为8400万美元和1600万美元，而不是此前预测的1.32亿美元和4100万美元。分析师们现在预测，2020年的收入将达到1.78亿美元，现金流将达到6400万美元。
( CGC )及奥罗拉（Aurora） Cannabis
Bottomcley 和 Burleson 写道：“作为仅有的两家获得全球战略合作伙伴大量股权投资的特许生产商之一， Cronos 的股价几乎翻了一番。”他们指出，即使以昨日20美元的价格计算， Cronos 的股价也接近2020年现金流预期的92倍。相比之下，娱乐销售水平较高的大麻竞争对手的股价约为2020年预计现金流的40倍。
即使是对 Canaccord 的行业看涨者来说，这一溢价也太高了。