Which Pot Stocks Have the Highest Gross Margin?


2019-04-21 21:06:00 Motley Fool


What a difference a few months make. After ending the fourth quarter of 2018 on a sour note, and on the cusp of the first bear market in a decade, the broad-based S&P 500 has rallied 16% since the year began. Of course, if you think that's impressive, take a gander at the Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF, the first tradable cannabis exchange-traded fund, which is up 43% through April 16, leaving the broader market eating its dust. This massive outperformance for marijuana stocks suggests that investors are very much buying into the long-term growth potential of the green rush. Depending on your preferred source, this is an industry that could grow to as much as $75 billion in global sales by 2030, up from $12.2 billion in worldwide sales in 2018. Image source: Getty Images. But while there have been ample gains for investors throughout the pot industry, one aspect that's been very different among marijuana stocks is their gross margin, which can be calculated by dividing their gross profit (i.e., revenue minus cost of goods sold) into their net revenue, prior to any fair-value adjustments on biological assets. With most growers and vertically integrated dispensary operators spending aggressively on expansion, gross margin isn't exactly expected to be robust. However, a quick glance of gross margin data from more than a dozen of the largest pot stocks, based on their most recent quarterly data, does reveal some interesting surprises. Here's a look at the most recent gross margin data for 14 prominent marijuana stocks, ranked in descending order and rounded to the nearest whole number: Image source: Getty Images. Perhaps it's no surprise that the pot stock with the best pound-for-pound gross margin of the group is Charlotte's Web, which is also the most profitable marijuana stock. Charlotte's Web, which sells hemp-derived cannabidiol (CBD) products -- CBD is the nonpsychoactive cannabinoid best known for its perceived medical benefits -- was in nearly 3,700 retail doors at the end of 2018, and should have no trouble vastly expanding its retail network moving forward thanks to the Farm Bill becoming law in December. The Farm Bill legalized commercial hemp production, as well as the extraction of CBD from hemp plants, thereby giving the company's entire line of products a green light in all 50 states. Although some clarification is needed by the Food and Drug Administration with regard to adding CBD to food, beverages, and dietary supplements, the Farm Bill gives Charlotte's Web free passage to thrive. After growing organic sales by 74% in 2018, Wall Street is looking for the company to more than double its sales in 2019 and again in 2020.  Image source: Getty Images. Among the highly competitive vertically integrated dispensary operators in the United States, Curaleaf Holdings takes its seat at the head of the table with a 63% gross margin. However, it is worth pointing out that Curaleaf generates revenue from its owned retail stores, as well as via management fees. With specific regard to cannabis, the company's gross margin was a more modest 50%. Right now, no dispensary operator has a larger retail footprint (i.e., currently open stores) than Curaleaf, with 43 open stores, 13 growing sites, and 11 processing facilities, spanning a dozen states. Of course, more than half of its retail stores are currently open in Florida. The Sunshine State's appetite for medical marijuana has been robust, which is expected with a population that's older than the national average. Looking a bit further down the road, Curaleaf has 71 retail licenses, and will aim to have closer to 70 retail locations open by the end of 2019. As its base of open locations grows, cannabis margins should improve. Image source: Getty Images. Sometimes great stocks come in small packages, which is the case with the only major Atlantic-based grower, OrganiGram Holdings. Among Canadian pot growers, none has delivered a more robust gross margin. OrganiGram, which expects to yield 113,000 kilos at its peak, likely slotting the company in as a fringe top-10 producer, has a laundry list of competitive advantages. Chief among them is the expectation that it'll yield more than 230 grams per square foot, which is over double the industry average. By using three growing tiers at its Moncton campus in New Brunswick, the company is able to maximize its growing space better than any of its peers. To build on this point, OrganiGram only has a single grow site (Moncton), which allows its supply chain costs to be minimal. Add this to its geographic advantage in the Atlantic, a region with a higher percentage of cannabis users than more populated provinces in Canada, and it's easy to see how this company has been such a success. Image source: Getty Images. On the other hand, three of the most popular pot stocks -- Canopy Growth, Tilray, and Aphria -- had the most anemic gross margin in their most recent quarters. Canopy Growth, the largest pot stock in the world by market cap, is sparing no expense in its effort to secure market share. Canopy's cost of goods sold includes the impact of operating costs at growing facilities that aren't fully commissioned, such as the 1.7-million-square-foot Delta greenhouse, which serves as a major drag on the company's gross margin. Not surprisingly, investors are going to need to wait until 2021 before this stock has any shot at recurring full-year profits.  Unlike Canopy Growth, Tilray's pitiful gross margin is a result of the company having to purchase marijuana at wholesale prices, because its organic production isn't yet up to snuff. Recently, Tilray CEO Brendan Kennedy noted that his company would deemphasize Canada in favor of Europe and the United States, with supply chain issues in Canada potentially playing a role. However, this strategy shift could push Tilray to annual losses until 2021. Bringing up the rear is Aphria, a company that looks cheap on the surface but has lost the trust of shareholders in recent months. Most of Aphria's sales in its most recent quarter were derived from distribution revenue, courtesy of its CC Pharma acquisition. This is a considerably lower-margin business than selling cannabis. Then again, it's sort of hard to mask that Aphria sold almost 23% fewer kilos of cannabis in the third quarter than in the sequential second quarter, which makes little sense.  These may be popular pot stocks, but their margins have "avoid" written all over them.
几个月后有什么不同。在2018年第四季度结束后,市场表现不佳,在十年来首次出现熊市的时候,基础广泛的标普500指数自年初以来上涨了16%。当然,如果你认为这是令人印象深刻的,那就去 Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF 吧。这是第一只可交易的大麻交易所交易基金,截至4月16日,该基金上涨了43%,整个市场都在吞噬着它的灰尘。 大麻股票如此巨大的超额表现表明,投资者正在大量购买绿色热潮的长期增长潜力。根据您的首选来源,到2030年,这个行业的全球销售额将从2018年的122亿美元增长至多750亿美元。 图片来源: Getty Images 。 但是,尽管大麻产业的投资者获得了大量收益,但大麻股票的一个非常不同的方面是它们的毛利率,这可以通过在对生物资产进行任何公允价值调整之前,将它们的毛利润(即收入减去出售商品的成本)划分为净收入来计算。 由于大多数种植者和垂直整合的药房运营商都在大举扩张,毛利率预计并不是很强劲。然而,根据十多家最大的罐装股票的最新季度数据,从它们的毛利率数据中可以迅速看出一些有趣的意外情况。下面是14只著名大麻股票最近的毛利率数据,按降序排列,四舍五入到最近的整数: 图片来源: Getty Images 。 也许不足为奇的是,拥有最好的英镑/英镑毛利率的大麻股票是夏洛特的网络,这也是最赚钱的大麻股票。 夏洛蒂的网络,销售大麻衍生的大麻( CBD )产品- CBD 是最著名的非选择性大麻,以其感知的医疗利益-是在接近3,700零售大门在2018年年底,应该没有麻烦,大大扩大其零售网络前进,由于农场法案成为法律在12月。《农场法案》将商业大麻生产合法化,以及从大麻植物中提取 CBD ,从而使公司的整个产品线在所有50个州都获得了绿灯。虽然食品药品监督管理局(Food and Drug Administration)需要对在食品、饮料和膳食补充剂中添加 CBD 做出一些澄清,但是《农场法案》给夏洛特提供了一个免费的网络通道,使其蓬勃发展。 在2018年有机销售额增长74%之后,华尔街希望该公司在2019年和2020年的销售额翻一番以上。 图片来源: Getty Images 。 在美国竞争激烈的垂直一体化药房运营商中, Curaleaf Holdings 以63%的毛利率占据榜首。然而,值得指出的是, Curaleaf 通过自有零售店以及管理费产生收入。就大麻而言,公司的毛利率较为适中,为50%。 目前,没有一家药房运营商拥有比 Curaleaf 更大的零售足迹(例如,目前开设的门店),拥有43家开店、13个增长网点和11个加工设施,覆盖十几个州。当然,超过一半的零售商店目前在弗洛里达州开业。阳光之州对医用大麻的胃口一直很大,预计人口将超过全国平均水平。 往下看, Curaleaf 拥有71个零售许可证,目标是在2019年底前开放近70个零售场所。随着大麻开放基地的增加,大麻的利润应该会提高。 图片来源: Getty Images 。 有时,大量的股票以小包装形式出现,这就是唯一的大型大西洋种植者 OrganiGram 控股公司的情况。在加拿大的盆栽种植者中,没有一个能提供更强劲的毛利率。 OrganiGram 公司有望在巅峰时期收获11.3万公斤的产量,很可能使该公司成为排名前10的边缘生产商。该公司拥有一系列竞争优势。其中最主要的是预期每平方英尺的产量将超过230克,是行业平均水平的两倍多。通过在位于新不伦瑞克的 Moncton 校园中使用三个不断增长的层级,该公司能够比其他同行更好地利用其不断增长的空间。 在此基础上, OrganiGram 只有一个单一的增长站点( Moncton ),这使得其供应链成本最低。再加上它在大西洋地区的地理优势,该地区的大麻使用者比例高于加拿大人口较多的省份,很容易看到这家公司是如何取得如此成功的。 图片来源: Getty Images 。 另一方面,最受欢迎的三只股票—— Canopy Growth 、 Tilray 和 Aphria ——最近几个季度的毛利润率最差。 按市值计算, Canopy Growth 是全球最大的一只罐装股票,为了获得市场份额,该公司不惜任何代价。Canopy 的商品销售成本包括未完全委托的生长设施的运营成本的影响,如170万平方英尺的 Delta 温室,对公司的毛利率构成重大拖累。不出所料,投资者需要等到2021年,才能获得全年的经常性利润。 与 Canopy Growth 不同, Tilray 可怜的毛利率是因为该公司不得不以批发价购买大麻,因为它的有机生产还没有达到鼻烟。最近, Tilray 首席执行官 BrendanKennedy 指出,他的公司将以有利于欧洲和美国的态度强调加拿大,加拿大的供应链问题有可能发挥作用。然而,这种战略转变可能会使 Tilray 在2021年之前每年亏损。 后排是 Aphria ,这家表面上看起来很便宜,但最近几个月失去了股东的信任的公司。Aphria 最近一个季度的大部分销售来自分销收入,得益于其收购 CC Pharma 。这是一个相当低利润的业务比出售大麻。再一次,很难掩盖 Aphria 在第三季度卖出的大麻比第二季度少了近23%,这是毫无意义的。 这些股票可能很受欢迎,但它们的利润“避免”了所有股票的价值。