These 3 Value Stocks Are Absurdly Cheap Right Now

手握多款肿瘤重磅药,Exelixis股价将逆势上涨

2019-05-15 21:00:38 Motley Fool

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Everyone loves a bargain, especially stock investors. However, with the market near all-time highs again, it's hard to find great deals today. But if you look hard enough, you can find some interesting value stories. Right now, you should be looking at niche cancer-drug maker Exelixis ; high-profile social media platform Twitter , which is materially growing cash flow; and energy giant ExxonMobil , which looks like it's turned an important corner. Here's a quick rundown on each of these undervalued stocks. George Budwell (Exelixis): Given that oncology is the fastest-growing space within the pharmaceutical industry and the vast majority of experimental drugs fail to reach the market, cancer companies with Food and Drug Administration-approved products tend to garner sizable premiums. However, the mid-cap cancer company Exelixis is currently bucking this prevailing trend in a big way. The biotech's PEG ratio of 0.47 is among the absolute lowest within its particular peer group.  Why isn't Exelixis attracting more attention from investors? The touchstone issue is that cabozantinib is set to compete against top-flight drug combinations from both Bristol-Myers Squibb and Merck & Co. in kidney cancer. The market, though, is arguably missing the bigger picture. Cabozantinib should be able to carve out a well-defined and highly profitable niche as a later-line treatment in kidney cancer. In other words, these big-name competitors aren't expected to displace cabozantinib in advanced kidney cancer, or even really change its commercial opportunity for this indication.  Moreover, the market also hasn't caught on to cabozantinib's stellar commercial potential in advanced liver cancer. The drug snagged this high-value indication earlier this year and it's already making headway as an important addition to the therapeutic landscape only a few short months into its launch, according to the company's first-quarter commentary.  The bottom line is that Exelixis is trading at an absurd valuation right now. The company's top line is expected to more than double from here within the next five years -- even with these potent competitors in the picture. This top cancer stock, therefore, should definitely be on your radar if you're on the hunt for an outstanding bargain.  Brian Stoffel (Twitter): It's harder and harder to find "value" stocks these days. The long-term average P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is about 15. Today, that figure stands at 22. Broadly speaking, this means that stocks are priced about 45% above their long-term average.  The stock I'm recommending as a value has an even higher P/E. After backing out stock-based compensation, Twitter's P/E stands at 37. If we consider the free cash flow ratio, it's not that much better -- at 31. However, I think there's undeniable value in shares that are underappreciated.  The service is working very hard to clean itself up -- and that both costs money and reduces the number of active users that appear in quarterly releases. And yet, by focusing on what it does best -- connecting people in real time -- and cutting out excess spending, it has been a cash flow machine over the past four years. TTM = Trailing 12 months. CAGR= Compound annual growth rate. Data source: Yahoo! Finance. Even if we use 2016 as our starting point, free cash flow has grown at a CAGR of 30% per year. Remember, the business is protected by the network effect: Each additional member makes the overall platform more valuable. While Twitter may not cater to nearly as wide an audience as Facebook, it has many big-name influencers on its roster. Increasingly, those influencers are drawing more people to the site on a daily basis: Growth in monetizable daily active users actually accelerated to 11% last quarter. No, it may not be your traditional value stock. But with an improving platform and lots of room to grow its ad load, I still think Twitter is undervalued.  Reuben Gregg Brewer (ExxonMobil): Exxon's 4.3% dividend yield is at levels last seen when Bill Clinton was president in the mid-1990s. Its 1.7 price-to-tangible book value ratio hasn't been this low since Reagan and George H. W. Bush were in office in the 1980s. Simply put, based on history, Exxon looks mighty cheap right now. XOM dividend yield (TTM) data by YCharts. To be fair, there's a reason for the low price. Exxon's production has been falling for years, while peers have been growing their output. That's not a good trend, but Exxon isn't oblivious to this. In fact, it's been executing well on a plan to get production heading in the right direction again. The problem is that turning an over-$320 billion market cap ship takes time and Wall Street hates to wait. But that's an opportunity for dividend investors willing to think long term. Meanwhile, Exxon's broad diversification across the upstream (drilling) and downstream (chemicals and refining) sectors gives its portfolio important balance in an often-volatile industry. Add in a conservative balance sheet with long-term debt at less than 10% of the capital structure, and even low oil prices are unlikely to derail its long-term capital investment plans.    The best news in all of this, however, is probably the fact that the energy giant's oil production looks to have hit an important inflection point in the second half of 2018 -- and that's on the strength of just one of its key growth initiatives. If you act now, though, you can still grab this fat yield before Wall Street catches on to Exxon's improving state of affairs.
每个人都喜欢便宜货,尤其是股票投资者。然而,随着市场再次接近历史高点,今天很难找理想的交易。但如果你看起来足够努力,你可以找到一些有趣的价值故事。现在,你应该关注利基癌症药物制造商 Exelixis ;备受关注的社交媒体平台 Twitter ,它正在大幅增长的现金流;能源巨头埃克森美孚( ExxonMobil ),它看起来已经变成了一个重要的角落。下面是这些被低估的股票的快速下跌。 George Budwell ( Exelixis ):鉴于肿瘤学是制药业增长最快的领域,而且绝大多数实验药物未能进入市场,拥有食品和药物管理局批准的产品的癌症公司往往会获得可观的溢价。中型癌症公司 Exelixis 目前在很大程度上逆势而行。生物技术的 PEG 比率为0.47,是其特定同辈群体中绝对最低的。 为什么 Exelixis 不能吸引投资者的更多关注?关键问题是卡布沙替尼将与百时美施贵宝( Bristol-MyersSquibb )和默克公司( Merck & Co .)在肾癌领域的顶级药物组合竞争。不过,市场可能正在失去更大的前景。卡布沙替尼应该能够创造一个明确界定和高利润的利基作为晚期肾病治疗。换句话说,这些大牌竞争对手预计不会取代卡波西汀在晚期肾癌,甚至真正改变其商业机会,为这一迹象。 此外,市场也没有抓住卡布沙替尼在晚期肝癌方面的巨大商业潜力。根据该公司第一季度的评论,该药在今年早些时候获得了这一高价值的适应症,作为治疗领域的一个重要补充,该药物在上市仅几个月内就取得了进展。 底线是, Exelixis 目前的交易估值是荒谬的。未来五年内,预计该公司的收入将比现在增加一倍以上,即便是在这些强大的竞争对手面前。因此,如果你在寻找一笔出色的交易,这只顶级的癌症股票肯定会成为你的关注对象。 BrianStoffel ( Twitter ):现在找到“有价值”的股票越来越困难。标准普尔500指数的长期平均市盈率约为15倍。今天,这个数字是22。总的来说,这意味着股票的价格比长期平均价格高出45%。 我推荐的股票价值更高。在剔除股票薪酬后, Twitter 的市盈率为37倍。如果我们考虑一下自由现金流比率,它并不是那么好,在31岁。然而,我认为股票的价值是不可否认的。 该服务正在非常努力地进行自我清理工作,这两项工作都耗费了资金,并减少了出现在季度发布中的活跃用户数量。然而,通过关注它能做得最好的事情——实时连接人们——以及削减过度支出,它在过去四年一直是一个现金流机器。 TTM =行驶12个月。复合年增长率=复合年增长率。数据来源:雅虎!财务. 即使我们以2016年为起点,自由现金流也以每年30%的复合年增长率增长。记住,业务受到网络效应的保护:每个附加成员都使整个平台更有价值。 虽然 Twitter 可能不像 Facebook 那样迎合更广泛的受众,但它在其名册上有许多知名影响者。越来越多的影响者每天都会吸引更多的人到网站上:可货币化的日常活跃用户的增长实际上在上季度加速到11%。 不,它可能不是你的传统价值股票。但随着平台的不断完善,以及大量增加其广告负载的空间,我仍然认为 Twitter 被低估了。 Reuben Gregg Brewer ( ExxonMobil ):埃克森美孚4.3%的股息率达到了上世纪90年代中期比尔•克林顿( Bill Clinton )当选总统时的水平。自里根( Reagan )和乔治· H · W ( George H.W .)之后,其1.7的有形账面价值比率并不低。布什在20世纪80年代执政。简单地说,根据历史,埃克森现在看起来非常便宜。 以 YCharts 表示的 XOM 股息率( TTM )数据。 公平地说,低价是有原因的。埃克森美孚( Exxon )的产量多年来一直在下降,而同行的产量一直在增长。这不是一个好的趋势,但埃克森并没有忘记这一点。事实上,它一直执行良好的计划,使生产向正确的方向发展。问题是,要打开一艘价值超过3,200亿美元的市值船舶需要时间,华尔街不愿等待。 但对于愿意长期考虑的股息投资者来说,这是一个机会。与此同时,埃克森美孚在上游(钻探)和下游(化学品和炼油)行业的广泛多样化,使其投资组合在一个经常波动的行业中取得了重要平衡。再加上保守的资产负债表,长期债务不到资本结构的10%,即使油价处于低位,也不太可能偏离其长期资本投资计划。 然而,这一切中最好的消息可能是,这家能源巨头的石油产量似乎在2018年下半年达到了一个重要转折点,而这仅仅是其关键增长举措之一的优势所在。不过,如果你现在采取行动,在华尔街抓住埃克森美孚不断改善的状况之前,你仍然可以抓住这个丰厚的收益。

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