Aurora Cannabis is on track to be the one of the first big marijuana firms to turn a profit. That could come as soon as this quarter, according to Cowen analyst Vivien Azer.
The back story. Aurora Cannabis sold 9 metric tons of marijuana last quarter, but that wasn’t enough to beat Wall Street’s bar for revenue and adjusted earnings. At the time, BMO Capital Markets analyst Tamy Chen was concerned about a lack of supply that could hinder its path to profitability.
Aurora stock (ticker: ACB) closed at $9.25 3 months ago. Since then it has shed a fifth of its value, sinking to $7.30 at Friday’s close. Some have been bullish, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Cowen among them, while others, including Stifel’s Andrew Carter, prefer rival Canopy Growth.
What's new. Azer called Aurora stock her top marijuana pick, in a note to clients on Monday. She wrote that while other firms struggle with larger losses, Aurora could reach positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, this quarter. Compare that with Canopy, which posted an expanded Ebitda loss of 98 million Canadian dollars (US$74.3 million) when in reported fiscal fourth quarter earnings last week.
“At a time when EBITDA losses across the industry are elevated, we have a strong appreciation for ACB’s operational rigor,” Azer wrote.
She noted that Aurora holds a No. 2 position in recreational-use revenue and is among the best at keeping a variety of products in stock in Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta. She also said it has the largest cultivation footprint in Canada, which gives the company the infrastructure to increase its revenue in the medical market during a weaker recreational market.
Aurora stock was up 2.1% to $7.45 Monday afternoon. The S&P 500 was nearly flat.
Looking ahead. Azer maintained an Outperform rating, noting that it should trade at a premium to its peers “given its near term path to profitability in conjunction with strong early stage execution within the nascent Canadian cannabis adult use market.”
She said that as the recreational-use market evolves, she looks for better industry supply to support bricks-and-mortar stores and draw more market share from illicit sellers.
Health Canada will also begin evaluating second-wave Cannabis products, such as vapes and edibles, in October. The process will take 60 days, meaning those products wouldn’t hit the shelves until at least mid to late December. When that does happen, Azer expects Aurora to focus its efforts on vapor, although “they will likely carry a diverse portfolio of products.”
She said Aurora could add revenue via its operations in Germany and Australia, and attract a big-time strategic partner “likely brokered by strategic advisor Nelson Peltz.”
奥罗拉（Aurora） Cannabis 有望成为最早盈利的大型大麻公司之一。Cowen 分析师 VivienAzer 表示，这可能最早在本季度到来。
后面的故事。奥罗拉（Aurora） Cannabis 上个季度售出了9吨大麻，但这还不足以超过华尔街的收入和调整后的利润。当时， BMO 资本市场（ BMO Capital Markets ）分析师陈添敏（ TammyChen ）担心，供应不足可能阻碍其盈利。
奥罗拉（Aurora）股票（股票代码： ACB ）3个月前收于9.25美元。自那以来，该公司市值缩水了五分之一，在上周五收盘时跌至7.30美元。一些人一直持乐观态度，其中包括美国银行美林( Bank of America Merrill Lynch )和考恩( Cowen )，而包括 Stifel 的安德鲁•卡特( Andrew Carter )在内的其他人更喜欢竞争对手 Canopy Growth 。
什么是新的。Azer 在周一给客户的一份报告中称奥罗拉（Aurora）是她最喜欢的大麻。她写道，当其他公司面临更大的损失时，奥罗拉（Aurora）可能在本季度的息税折旧摊销前利润（ Ebitda ）为正。与 Canopy 相比，后者上周公布的第四财季收益报告显示， Ebitda 亏损扩大了9,800万加元（7,430万美元）。
“在整个行业的 EBITDA 亏损大幅上升之际，我们对 ACB 的运营严格程度有很强的认识，” Azer 写道。
展望未来.Azer 维持了“ Outperformance ”评级，指出该公司的股价应高于同行，“考虑到其近期实现盈利的途径，以及加拿大新生的大麻成人使用市场早期的强劲执行。”
加拿大卫生部还将于10月开始评估第二波大麻产品，如美洲瓜果和食用产品。这个过程需要60天，这意味着这些产品至少要到12月中旬才能上架。当这种情况发生时， Azer 预计奥罗拉（Aurora）将把精力集中在蒸汽上，尽管“他们可能会拥有多样化的产品组合。”
她表示，奥罗拉（Aurora）可以通过在德国和澳大利亚的业务增加收入，并吸引“可能由战略顾问纳尔逊•佩茨( Nelson Peltz )促成”的大型战略合作伙伴。