In 2019, the vast majority of licensed cannabis producers have been losing money at a time investors were expecting the profits to start rolling in. Among those with at least $20 million in annual sales, all but a handful reported losses in the most recent quarter.
The Public Cannabis Company Revenue Tracker at New Cannabis Ventures currently lists just seven companies in North America with operations that squeaked out a profit during their most recent quarter. Here's how the top three performers have been able to make money while their peers report accelerating losses.
After excluding fair value changes that cannabis growers are required to report, Trulieve's operations produced a $16.5 million profit. That made it the most profitable cannabis producer on the continent.
Trulieve holds an enviable position in Florida's burgeoning market for medical marijuana, thanks to its headquarters near the state capital and 14 dispensaries grandfathered in before the state decided to limit retail locations to 25 per operator. At the end of May, Trulieve operated 28 of the state's 123 open dispensaries, and Trulieve can go all the way up to 44.
The state of Florida offers much wider profit margins than many states with older programs, because dispensary operators can only sell products that they cultivate and process in their own state-licensed facilities.
Although Trulieve has been the most profitable cannabis producer around, it may have trouble holding the title in 2020 and beyond. Unsatisfied with profits from its Florida-based businesses, Trulieve has been buying up assets in Massachusetts, California, and Connecticut that could struggle to provide a return.
This company is proof that licensed Canadian producers can make money if they're careful. Organigram reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) that reached an impressive 49% of net revenue in the first quarter.
Organigram reported net revenue that soared 117% over the previous quarter. Over the same time frame spending on sales, general, and administrative expenses rose just 27% to CA$5.7 million.
Organigram was the only Canadian cannabis producer with significant revenue that churned out a profit during its most recently reported quarter. Although it has all of its peers beat, the stock's been trading at 23.7 times trailing sales, which is awfully high for most consumer goods companies with commoditized products.
Licensed cannabis inventories in Canada have been rising, leading investors to fear possible inventory writedowns in the near future. While its peers have trouble producing products that Canadians actually want to buy, Organigram is moving its products through the supply chain without much trouble at all. According to Health Canada, inventories of cannabis oil reached 119,696 liters in April, which would last around 14 months at the country's current consumption rate. Organigram's oil inventory actually fell during the three months ended February, to 6,246 liters after the company sold 5,735 liters during the period.
Innovative Industrial Properties has been the best performing cannabis stock this year thanks to steadily rising profits. That's because IIP's a real estate investment trust (REIT) that lets U.S.-based cannabis producers with limited financing options borrow money to buy and renovate cultivation and processing facilities.
A steady stream of customers has allowed the company's property portfolio to expand along with a dividend that offers a meager 1.9% yield at recent prices even though the payout's been growing by leaps and bounds. Over the past year, the IIP's increased its payout by 140%, and a repeat performance could make you very rich.
IIP sports a rapidly growing portfolio of properties that are 100% occupied by tenants that have signed long-term leases with annual rent increases built in that should provide a 15% return on capital invested. Of course, if a few of its tenants can't pay their rent over the course of leases that generally last 15 years, it could be hard to squeak out a positive return with this stock.
You should probably know that IIP's been lending money to vertically integrated cannabis producers that might have more trouble paying their rent than expected. Trulieve's foray into markets outside of its backyard might pay off, but solidifying its Florida presence seems like a better, albeit unglamorous, alternative.
While IIP, Organigram, and Trulieve are clearly doing something right, now's probably not a great time to buy any of these stocks. There's a good chance that Canadian producers will announce inventory writedowns before the end of the year, and the aftershocks of such a big wake-up call could indiscriminately knock down shares of companies producing profits along with the rest of the industry. That's not necessarily a bad outcome. If you're patient, you might be able to scoop up one of these businesses at a deep discount in 2020.
在剔除大麻种植者需要报告的公允价值变动后， Trulieve 的业务产生了1650万美元的利润。这使它成为非洲大陆最赚钱的大麻生产者。
Trulieve 在弗洛里达州蓬勃发展的医用大麻市场占有令人羡慕的地位，这要归功于它在该州首府附近的总部，以及在该州决定将零售场所限制在每家经营者25家之前的14家药房。5月底， Trulieve 经营着该州123家开放药房中的28家， Trulieve 可以一直经营到44家。
尽管 Trulieve 一直是全球最赚钱的大麻生产商，但在2020年及以后，它可能很难获得冠军。Trulieve 对其设在佛罗里达的业务利润感到不满，一直在购买马萨诸塞州、加利福尼亚州和康涅狄格州的资产，这些资产可能难以提供回报。
这家公司证明，如果加拿大特许生产商小心行事，他们就能赚钱。Organigram 报告了未计利息、税项、折旧及摊销前收益（ EBITDA ），第一季度实现了令人印象深刻的净收入的49%。
加拿大的特许大麻库存一直在上升，导致投资者担心近期可能会出现库存减记。尽管其同行在生产加拿大人真正想要购买的产品方面遇到了困难，但 Organigram 正在将产品从供应链中转移，丝毫没有什么麻烦。根据加拿大卫生部的数据，4月份大麻石油库存达到119,696升，按目前的消费量计算将持续14个月左右。在截至2月的三个月中， Organigram 的石油库存实际上下降到了6,246升，此前该公司在此期间售出了5,735升石油。
由于利润稳步上升，创新工业地产( Innovative Industrial Properties )今年一直是表现最佳的大麻股票。这是因为 IIP 是一家房地产投资信托基金( REIT )，它让美国融资渠道有限的大麻生产商借钱购买和翻新种植和加工设施。
稳定的客户流使该公司的房地产投资组合得以扩大，同时也带来了股息，按最近的价格计算，股息收益率仅为1.9%，尽管股息一直在大幅增长。在过去的一年里， IIP 的支出增加了140%，重复的表现会让你非常富有。
你应该知道， IIP 一直在向垂直整合的大麻生产商提供贷款，这些生产商可能比预期更难支付租金。Trulieve 进军其后院之外的市场可能会带来回报，但巩固其在弗洛里达州的存在似乎是一个更好的选择，尽管不太宽容。
虽然 IIP 、 Organigram 和 Trulieve 显然在做正确的事情，但现在可能不是购买这些股票的好时机。加拿大生产商很有可能在年底前宣布库存减记，而如此大规模的召回行动的余震可能会不加区别地打击与其他行业一样产生利润的公司的股价。这不一定是一个坏结果。如果你有耐心，你或许可以在2020年以极低的价格收购其中一家公司。