Wait Until Earnings to Move on Alibaba Stock

等待收益在阿里巴巴上市之前

2019-08-10 00:31:18 InvestorPlace

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Alibaba stock is having a rough start this month. Shares have fallen from $174.33 on Aug. 1 to $162.22 at the close of Aug. 8. With the U.S.-China trade war accelerating, investors are skittish about the company’s prospects. But will the trade war materially impact the business of Alibaba Group? With BABA becoming increasingly tied to China’s domestic economy, they could be insulated from this macro risk. With shares taking a dip, the stock could be a buying opportunity. However, growing competitors are an emerging threat. Long-term, this could reduce the company’s market power. So what’s the play with Alibaba stock? Read on to see whether investors should take a position, or wait for a better entry point. InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips As discussed in my July article, the company’s future is the Chinese middle class. Similar to Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) in the U.S., the company dominates e-commerce in China, holding a leading market share in its home market. Alibaba’s move into cloud services and entertainment is very similar to Amazon’s diversification in the United States. However, Alibaba’s diversification efforts currently lose money. Amazon’s AWS unit generates most of AMZN’s operating income. But BABA’s cloud computing unit had an operating loss of RMB 164 million in the quarter ending March 31. Alibaba’s entertainment unit lost RMB 2.82 billion in the same quarter. The massive profitability of the retail unit (RMB 27.5 billion in quarterly operating earnings) allows Alibaba to take gambles with diversification. But BABA is not the only e-commerce player in town. Rival JD.com (NASDAQ:JD) is catching up fast. As I wrote on Aug. 1, JD.com could unseat Alibaba as the “The Amazon of China.” JD’s e-commerce platform is a distant second to Alibaba, but JD.com has plenty of capital to scale. With partners such as Tencent (OTCMKTS:TCEHY), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG,NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Walmart (NYSE:WMT), JD.com is a serious threat. But the growing Chinese retail market leaves plenty of runway. Chinese e-commerce grew 23.9% in 2018. The Chinese online retail market is expected to hit $1.8 trillion in sales by 2022. This will make China’s retail market double the size of the U.S. market. Alibaba Group continues to show impressive sales growth. The move from an export-driven to a consumer-driven economy provides tremendous upside. But BABA stock could already be pricing in this potential. Let’s take a look at Alibaba stock’s valuation relative to peers. Do investors get a discount, or is the stock fairly valued? Alibaba stock currently trades with a forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.56. The company’s trailing twelve month (TTM) Enterprise Value/EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) is 25.5. Compare this to Amazon’s current valuation (54.3 times forward earnings, EV/EBITDA of 28.2). This makes Alibaba cheap on a P/E basis, but fairly valued on an EV/EBITDA basis. Competitor JD.com trades at 26.1 times forward earnings, and has a TTM EV/EBITDA ratio of 64.2. Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD) has both a negative forward P/E, as well as a negative EV/EBITDA ratio. JD.com is a more-apt peer to Alibaba, given Pinduoduo’s focus on the lower end of Chinese e-commerce. While JD.com has a wider runway given its size relative to BABA, Alibaba stock is the better value. As Alibaba Group continues to lose money in cloud computing and entertainment, this diversification provides additional pathways to upside. In addition, while JD.com has the potential to usurp Alibaba as the “Amazon of China,” investors must pay a hefty premium for that opportunity. Alibaba Group releases earnings next week. With this in mind, it may be best to wait things out. It is tough to predict the outcome of the U.S.-China trade war. But Alibaba’s domestic growth continues to be a major catalyst. With the upcoming earnings report, investors can better assess the long-term potential of Alibaba stock. With shares trading at a fair valuation, BABA stock is no bargain. High expectations continue to be priced into shares. But if the current headwinds continue, you may be able to enter a position at a better entry point. As of this writing, Thomas Niel did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.
阿里巴巴股票本月开局不利。股价已从8月1日的174.33美元跌至8月8日收盘时的162.22美元。随着美中贸易战加速,投资者对该公司的前景感到不安。 但贸易战是否会对阿里巴巴集团的业务产生重大影响?随着 BABA 与中国国内经济的联系日益紧密,它们可能不受这一宏观风险的影响。随着股价下跌,这只股票可能是一个买进机会。 然而,不断增长的竞争对手是一个新兴的威胁。长期来看,这可能会削弱该公司的市场影响力。那么阿里巴巴的股票有什么作用呢?继续阅读,看看投资者是应该采取立场,还是等待一个更好的切入点。 投资场所-股票市场新闻、股票咨询和交易提示 正如我7月份的文章中所讨论的,该公司的未来是中国中产阶级。与美国的亚马逊( NASDAQ : AMZN )类似,亚马逊在中国电子商务领域占据主导地位,在国内市场占据领先的市场份额。阿里巴巴进军云服务和娱乐领域,与亚马逊在美国的多元化非常相似。 然而,阿里巴巴的多元化努力目前正在亏损。亚马逊的 AWS 部门创造了 AMZN 的大部分营业收入。但在截至3月31日的季度中, BABA 的云计算部门的运营亏损为1.64亿元人民币。同一季度,阿里巴巴旗下娱乐部门亏损人民币28.2亿元。零售部门的巨额盈利(季度营业收入275亿元人民币)使阿里巴巴得以进行多样化的赌博。 但 BABA 并不是镇上唯一的电子商务玩家。竞争对手 JD 。纳斯达克( NASDAQ : JD )正迅速赶上。正如我8月1日写的, JD 。com 可以将阿里巴巴视为“中国的亚马逊”。京东的电子商务平台远远落后于阿里巴巴,但京东却是如此。com 有足够的资本可以扩大规模。与腾讯( OTCMKTS : TCEHY )、 Alphabet ( NASDAQ : GOOG 、 NASDAQ : GOOGL )、沃尔玛(Walmart)( NYSE : WMT )、京东等合作伙伴。com 是一个严重的威胁。 但不断增长的中国零售市场留下了大量的跑道。2018年中国电子商务增长23.9%。预计到2022年,中国在线零售市场的销售额将达到1.8万亿美元。这将使中国的零售市场规模扩大一倍。阿里巴巴集团继续显示出令人印象深刻的销售增长。从出口驱动型经济向消费驱动型经济的转变提供了巨大的好处。但 BABA 的股票可能已经在对这种潜力进行定价。让我们看看阿里巴巴的股票相对于同行的估值。投资者是否得到了折扣,或者股票是否得到了公平的估值? 阿里巴巴股票目前的预期市盈率为18.56倍。公司过去十二个月( TTM )企业价值/ EBITDA ( EV / EBITDA )为25.5。与亚马逊当前的估值相比(预期收益的54.3倍, EV / EBITDA 为28.2倍)。这使得阿里巴巴的市盈率很低,但估值相当于 EV / EBITDA 。 竞争对手 JD 。com 的预期市盈率为26.1倍, TTM EV / EBITDA 比率为64.2倍。双头双头(纳斯达克: PDD )既有负向前 P / E ,也有负 EV / EBITDA 比率。JD 。考虑到 Pindoublo 对中国电子商务低端市场的关注,阿里巴巴是一个更合适的同行。 而京东。考虑到阿里巴巴的规模相对于 BABA 的规模,该公司的股票价值更高。随着阿里巴巴集团在云计算和娱乐领域继续亏损,这种多元化提供了更多上行渠道。此外,而京东。京东有潜力将阿里巴巴篡夺为“中国亚马逊”,投资者必须为这一机会支付高额溢价。 阿里巴巴集团下周将公布收益。考虑到这一点,最好等一下。很难预测美中贸易战的结果。但阿里巴巴的国内增长仍是一个主要催化剂。随着即将发布的盈利报告,投资者可以更好地评估阿里巴巴股票的长期潜力。 由于股票以公平的价格交易, BABA 的股票是不便宜的。高预期继续被定价为股票。但如果目前的逆风继续存在,你可能能够进入一个更好的切入点。 截至本文撰写之日, Thomas Niel 未持有上述任何证券的头寸。

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