3 U.S. Marijuana Stocks to Buy, According to Analysts

分析师推荐3只值得购买美国大麻股票

2019-09-10 09:30:41 Barrons.com

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Another firm is pounding the table on U.S. marijuana stocks rather than their Canadian counterparts. In an detailed report pegged as a back-to-school lesson on so-called multi-state operators, a team of analysts at Canaccord Genuity suggested investors should give U.S. pot stocks another look. They recommend three top picks: Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF); Cresco Labs (CRLBF); and Harvest Health & Recreation (HRVSF). These American pot stocks trade at a significant discount to shares of growers in Canada, the team notes. That’s because American growers, known as multi-state operators, or MSOs, have set up shop in places where marijuana is only legal at the state level. Because it’s still a federally illegal drug, they can’t list on senior U.S. exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq. U.S.-based growers generally list on the Canadian Securities Exchange in Toronto and the OTC Markets Group in the U.S. That’s left the door open for Canadian growers to take investments from major U.S. companies. Canopy Growth (CGC), for example, has received billions of dollars from 34% stakeholder Constellation Brands (STZ). Altria owns a stake in Cronos Group (CRON), and Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) has partnered with Tilray (TLRY). In the case of Canopy, that’s led to increased pressure as the company’s losses continued to mount. Canopy co-founder Bruce Linton was removed as co-CEO in July after the company reported a larger than expected loss. “As MSOs on average have access to a greater population base than in Canada, are able to operate more favourable vertically integrated operations in many states, and are closer to achieving (or have achieved) profitability compared to most Canadian LPs, we believe this valuation gap will eventually close,” the Canaccord analysts wrote. They noted that adding up only currently legal markets and segments, including both recreational and medical marijuana, they estimate the total addressable market for legalized areas at maturity is nearing $40 billion. When and if the U.S. legalizes across the board, they estimate this opportunity grows to between $75 billion and $100 billion. “Although the U.S. cannabis opportunity is still in a nascent stage that spans a relatively disaggregated landscape, we believe a number of U.S. MSOs have secured a strong first-mover advantage at the national level and are beginning to compete for meaningful market share in more than a dozen markets in the U.S.,” the Canaccord team wrote. They also noted mergers and acquisitions that are awaiting Department of Justice approval. That’s been a headwind for U.S. stocks such as Curaleaf, though the analysts expect such deals to be approved, giving U.S. pot stocks a boost. They expect a “banner 2020 at the macro level with recreational markets such as California, Illinois and Massachusetts expected to contribute significantly to overall industry growth.” The team at Canaccord aren’t the only bulls on U.S. pot stocks. In June, a team at Compass Point Research & Trading recommended Curaleaf and Green Thumb Industries rather than Tilray and Canopy. GMP Securities’ Rob Fagan echoed this sentiment in an interview with Barron’s last month.
另一家公司则在打击美国大麻库存,而非加拿大同行。 在一份详细的报告中,Canaccord Genuity的一个分析师团队建议投资者重新审视美国股市,该报告被视为所谓的多国运营商的返校课程。 他们推荐三个顶级精选:Curaleaf(curlf)、Cresco Labs(crlbf)和Harvest Health & Recreation(hrvsf)。研究小组指出,这些美国大麻库存的交易价格与加拿大种植者的股票相比有很大的折扣。 这是因为美国种植者,被称为多州运营商,或MSO,在大麻只有在州一级才合法的地方开设了商店。因为这仍然是联邦政府的非法药物,他们不能在纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克等美国高级交易所上市。美国种植者通常在多伦多的加拿大证券交易所和美国的场外交易市场集团上市。 这为加拿大种植者从美国大公司获得投资敞开了大门。 冠层生长 例如,CGC从34%的利益相关者那里获得了数十亿美元 星座公司 (史崔兹)。 奥驰亚 持有股份 克洛诺斯集团 (cron)和 百威英博 (巴德)与 蒂雷 (特里)。 就冠层而言,随着公司亏损的持续增加,这导致了压力的增加。冠层联合创始人布鲁斯·林顿(bruce linton)7月份被免去联合首席执行官职务,此前该公司公布的亏损额超过预期。 “由于MSO平均拥有比加拿大更大的人口基数,能够在许多州开展更有利的垂直整合业务,并且与大多数加拿大LP相比更接近实现(或已经实现)盈利,我们相信这种估值差距将最终很接近,”Canaccord分析师写道。 他们指出,仅加上目前合法的市场和细分市场,包括娱乐和医疗大麻,他们估计,合法化地区在到期时的总目标市场接近400亿美元。如果美国全面合法化,他们估计这一机会将增加到750亿至1000亿美元之间。 “尽管美国大麻市场的机会仍处于一个相对细分的阶段,但我们相信,一些美国无国界医生已经在国家一级获得了强大的先发优势,并在三月份开始争夺有意义的市场份额。“凯茨在美国,”加拿大队写道。 他们还注意到正在等待司法部批准的合并和收购。这对库拉索叶等美国股市来说是个不利因素,不过分析师预计,此类交易将获得批准,从而提振美国大麻类股。 他们预计,“宏观层面的旗帜2020年,加州、伊利诺伊州和马萨诸塞州等娱乐市场有望对整个行业增长做出重大贡献。” Canaccord的团队并不是唯一看涨美国股市的人。今年6月,Compass Point Research&Trading的一个团队推荐了Curaleaf和Green Thumb Industries,而不是Tilray和Canopy。gmp证券(gmp securities)的罗布•法根(rob fagan)上月接受巴伦(barron)采访时也表达了同样的观点。

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