Tilray Inc: Big Moves Are Back for This Major Pot Stock

Tilray Inc.:这只主要股票的大动作又回来了

2021-08-02 20:30:16 PROFIT

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Remember the days when pot stocks were making double-digit gains in a single trading session? Over the years, the marijuana sector has enjoyed several rounds of such frenzy. But, as is the case with most parabolic runs, after a stock goes vertical, it’s bound to have some pullbacks. And the last pullback for marijuana stocks was pretty substantial. Earlier this year, during a “Reddit”-fueled meme stock frenzy, many pot stocks skyrocketed. However, since the peak in February, investors seem to have turned away. Even the hottest tickers haven’t been able to continue their upward momentum. But now, they might start making a comeback, with Tilray Inc (NASDAQ:TLRY) leading the charge. Tilray is one of the most popular names among marijuana stock investors. The company has always been known as a major player in the Canadian cannabis industry, but it also has operations in the U.S., Europe, Australia, and Latin America. Tilray stock is listed on both the Nasdaq Global Select Market and the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “TLRY.” TLRY stock went public in July 2018, and 2021 is bound to be a special year for the company for a very simple reason: it completed the biggest merger ever in the cannabis industry. On May 3, Tilray Inc announced the completion of its business combination with Aphria Inc, which was also a prominent player in the Canadian cannabis industry and a Nasdaq-listed pot stock. (Source: “Tilray & Aphria Announce Closing of Transaction That Creates the “New” Tilray – a Global Cannabis Leader,” Tilray Inc, May 3, 2021.) The combined company became the new Tilray, with each Aphria shareholder receiving $0.8381 of a Tilray share for each Aphria share they owned. The transaction created the biggest cannabis company in the world measured by revenue. The merger is expected to lead to substantial cost synergies in the key areas of cultivation, production, purchasing, sales, marketing, and corporate expenses. Management projects that the combined company will achieve approximately $81.0 million of annual pre-tax cost synergies within 18 months of closing the deal. Of course, as I mentioned earlier, marijuana stocks have returned to Earth after the meme stock frenzy earlier this year. And Tilray stock was no exception. Over the last several months, it simply wasn’t a hot commodity. Until now. On July 27, TLRY stock closed at $12.73 per share. The next day, it closed at $16.01 per share. That’s a gain of 25.8% in a single trading session! Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com The trigger for the massive jump in Tilray stock’s price was an earnings report the company released in the morning of July 28. The report showed that, in the fourth quarter of Tilray’s fiscal year 2021, which ended May 31, it generated $142.2 million of net revenue, marking a 25% increase year-over-year. (Source: “Tilray, Inc. Reports 2021 Fiscal Year and Fourth Quarter Results,” Tilray Inc, July 28, 2021.) In particular, the company’s net cannabis revenue grew by 36% year-over-year to $53.7 million. Its distribution revenue, on the other hand, declined by 10% to $66.8 million. Wall Street was forecasting that Tilray would report $150.0 million in revenue, so the company actually missed the top-line expectation. But there were other metrics that impressed market participants. For instance, Tilray Inc generated adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $12.3 million, up by 285% from the $3.2 million in the prior year and marking the ninth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. Considering that analysts were expecting $5.8 million in adjusted EBITDA, Tilray absolutely smashed the expectation for this metric. Furthermore, the company reported earnings of $0.18 per share for the fourth fiscal quarter, while Wall Street was anticipating a loss of $0.07 per share. So, Tilray Inc substantially outperformed the estimate for the bottom line. The company said it had already achieved $35.0 million in synergies from the Aphria merger and is on track to deliver $80.0 million more in cost savings over the next 16 months. In its earnings report, Tilray also mentioned that it has been gaining market share in Canada month-over-month since April 2021, and that it’s currently the No. 1 player in the country’s legal marijuana sector. Regarding the U.S. market, Tilray Inc’s chairman and chief executive officer, Irwin Simon, said there are two paths ahead: (Source: “Tilray, Inc. (TLRY) CEO Irwin Simon on Q4 2021 Results – Earnings Call Transcript,” Seeking Alpha, July 28, 2021.) Seeing a stock you own go vertical is probably one of the sweetest feelings for pot stock investors. But while I believe in Tilray Inc’s growth potential, I should point out that massive rallies are often followed by sizable pullbacks. In fact, TLRY stock slipped by 3.7% on July 29. At the same time, the uncertainty in the outlook of the global cannabis industry means marijuana stocks will likely remain volatile, and big swings can happen in both directions. In other words, pot stocks—including established ones like Tilray stock—will continue to be high-risk, high-reward types of plays.
还记得大麻股票在一个交易时段内取得两位数涨幅的日子吗? 多年来,大麻行业已经经历了几轮这样的疯狂。但是,就像大多数抛物线运行的情况一样,在一只股票垂直运行后,它肯定会有一些回调。大麻库存的上一次回调相当可观。 今年早些时候,在“Reddit”引发的迷因股狂潮中,许多大麻股飙升。然而,自2月份见顶以来,投资者似乎已转身离去。即使是最热门的股票也没能继续上涨势头。 但现在,他们可能会卷土重来,蒂尔雷公司(Nasdaq:TLRY)带头冲锋。 蒂尔雷是大麻股票投资者中最受欢迎的名字之一。该公司一直以加拿大大麻行业的主要参与者而闻名,但它在美国、欧洲、澳大利亚和拉丁美洲也有业务。 Tilray股票在纳斯达克全球精选市场和多伦多证券交易所上市,股票代码为“TLRY”。 TLRY股票于2018年7月上市,2021年对该公司来说注定是特殊的一年,原因很简单:它完成了大麻行业有史以来最大的合并。 5月3日,Tilray Inc.宣布完成与Aphria Inc.的业务合并,Aphria Inc.也是加拿大大麻行业的著名参与者,也是纳斯达克上市的大麻股票。(来源:“Tilray&Aphria宣布完成交易,创建”新的“Tilray--全球大麻领导者,”Tilray Inc,2021年5月3日。) 合并后的公司成为新的Tilray,每个Aphria股东每持有一股Aphria股票,就可以获得0.8381美元的Tilray股票。 以收入衡量,这笔交易创造了世界上最大的大麻公司。 此次合并预计将在种植、生产、采购、销售、营销和公司费用等关键领域产生巨大的成本协同效应。管理层预计,合并后的公司将在完成交易后的18个月内实现约8100万美元的年度税前成本协同效应。 当然,正如我之前提到的,在今年早些时候的迷因股狂潮之后,大麻股已经回到了地球。Tilray stock也不例外。在过去的几个月里,它根本不是一种热门商品。 直到现在。 7月27日,TLRY股票收于每股12.73美元。次日,收于每股16.01美元。这是一个25.8%的涨幅在一个交易日! 图表由stockcharts.com提供 Tilray股价大幅上涨的导火索是该公司7月28日上午发布的一份收益报告。 报告显示,在截至5月31日的2021财年第四季度,Tilray实现净收入1.422亿美元,同比增长25%。(来源:《蒂尔雷公司报告2021财年和第四季度业绩》,蒂尔雷公司,2021年7月28日。) 特别是,该公司的大麻净收入同比增长36%,达到5370万美元。另一方面,它的分销收入下降了10%,至6680万美元。 华尔街预测Tilray将报告1.5亿美元的收入,所以该公司实际上没有达到最高预期。但还有其他指标给市场参与者留下了深刻印象。 例如,Tilray Inc.的调整后息税折旧及摊销前利润(EBITDA)为1230万美元,较上年的320万美元增长285%,标志着连续第九个季度调整后EBITDA为正。 考虑到分析师预计调整后的EBITDA为580万美元,Tilray完全打破了对这一指标的预期。 此外,该公司公布第四财季每股收益0.18美元,而华尔街预计每股亏损0.07美元。因此,Tilray公司的业绩大大超过了对底线的估计。 该公司表示,它已经从Aphria合并中实现了3500万美元的协同增效,并有望在未来16个月内再节省800万美元的成本。 在收益报告中,Tilray还提到,自2021年4月以来,它在加拿大的市场份额逐月上升,目前是该国合法大麻行业的头号玩家。 关于美国市场,Tilray Inc.董事长兼首席执行官欧文·西蒙(Irwin Simon)表示,未来有两条路可走: (来源:“Tilray,Inc.(TLRY)首席执行官欧文·西蒙关于2021年第四季度业绩--收益电话会议记录”,《寻找阿尔法》,2021年7月28日。) 看到你拥有的股票走向垂直可能是大麻股票投资者最甜蜜的感觉之一。不过,尽管我相信Tilray Inc.的增长潜力,但我应该指出,大规模反弹之后往往会出现较大幅度的回调。事实上,TLRY的股票在7月29日下跌了3.7%。 与此同时,全球大麻行业前景的不确定性意味着大麻库存可能会保持波动,两个方向都可能发生大幅波动。换句话说,大麻股票--包括像Tilray股票这样的老牌股票--将继续是高风险、高回报的类型。

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