Sunnova Energy International Inc: Chart Points to Target of at Least $53

太阳新星能源国际公司:图表指向至少53美元的目标

2021-08-11 20:00:14 PROFIT

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The move toward green energy is in full swing in the U.S., firmly supported by President Joe Biden. An extremely optimistic goal to cut carbon emissions by 50% by 2030 will drive the animal spirits in the green energy space. There are numerous avenues to drive down carbon emissions, including solar, wind, alternative fuels, and electric vehicles. In the alternative energy space, Sunnova Energy International Inc (NYSE:NOVA) could really bust out. Sunnova provides solutions in residential solar and energy storage in more than 30 U.S. states and territories. (Source: “About Sunnova,” Sunnova Energy International Inc, last accessed August 10, 2021.) After trading at a 52-week high of $57.70 in January, NOVA stock has retrenched by 36%, where I see an opportunity. The below chart shows Sunnova Energy stock rallying from its low in March 2020 to well above its pre-pandemic level. The upward push was supported by strong relative strength and a bullish moving average convergence/divergence (MACD). NOVA stock is currently looking for support at the 50-day moving average of $34.35. A break of the 200-day moving average at $37.75 could drive Sunnova Energy stock toward its high. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com The above chart shows a double top breakout on July 29, with a price objective of $53.00. Sunnova Energy International Inc’s four-year revenue picture shows the company more than doubling its revenues from 2017 to its record $160.8 million in 2020. Sunnova Energy delivered double-digit revenue growth over the last three years. Moreover, the compound annual growth rate was an impressive 27.9% during the last five years. (Source: “Sunnova Energy International Inc.” MarketWatch, last accessed August 10, 2021.) And there’s optimism ahead. Sunnova Energy is expected to accelerate its revenue growth rate to 41.1% to $226.9 million this year, followed by a growth rate of 45.2% to $329.5 million in 2022. (Source: “Sunnova Energy International Inc. (NOVA),” Yahoo! Finance, last accessed August 10, 2021.) In the last five years, the company produced four straight years of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) income, including a record $32.5 million in 2020. (Source: MarketWatch, op. cit.) While its revenues and EBITDA have been sound, the hurdle facing Sunnova Energy International Inc is its failure to produce generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) earnings-per-share (EPS) profitability. (Source: MarketWatch, op. cit.) Looking ahead, the analyst estimates for Sunnova Energy International Inc vary from continued losses to profits. The consensus estimate is that the company will lose $0.80 per diluted share this year, but one estimate calls for profits of $1.16 per diluted share. (Source: Yahoo! Finance, op. cit.) For 2022, the consensus expectation is that Sunnova Energy International Inc will narrow its loss to $0.46 per diluted share, with an optimistic estimate calling for earnings of $2.52 per diluted share. (Source: Yahoo! Finance, op. cit.) Sunnova Energy’s free cash flow (FCF) remains extremely negative as the company spends capital on building its network across the country. I would like to see the FCF situation improve. (Source: MarketWatch, op. cit.) The risk for Sunnova Energy International Inc is its massive debt load of $2.7 billion, compared to the company’s cash of $368.8 million. (Source: Yahoo! Finance, op. cit.) While not an immediate concern, Sunnova Energy will need to address its debt. A move to positive FCF as revenues jump would help, since the funds could be used to reduce debt. Sunnova Energy International Inc has wide institutional ownership, with 340 institutions holding a 97.7% stake in its shares. (Source: Yahoo! Finance, op. cit.) Another good sign is that insiders have bought NOVA stock to the tune of a net 2.4 million shares over the last six months. (Source: Yahoo! Finance, op. cit.) While Sunnova Energy stock isn’t cheap, I feel that the market is justified in paying a premium for it, given the company’s potential over the next decade as the country strives to be carbon-neutral.
在乔·拜登总统的坚定支持下,绿色能源的发展在美国如火如荼。到2030年将碳排放量减少50%的极其乐观的目标将推动绿色能源领域的动物精神。 减少碳排放的途径有很多,包括太阳能、风能、替代燃料和电动汽车。 在替代能源领域,Sunnova energy International Inc.(纽约证券交易所代码:Nova)可能真的会破产。 Sunnova在美国30多个州和地区提供住宅太阳能和能源存储解决方案。(来源:“关于Sunnova”,Sunnova能源国际公司,最后一次访问是2021年8月10日。) 在1月份创下57.70美元的52周高点后,NOVA的股票已经下跌了36%,我认为这是一个机会。 下图显示Sunnova Energy的股票从2020年3月的低点反弹到远高于疫情前的水平。上涨受到强劲的相对力量和看涨的移动平均线收敛/发散(MACD)的支撑。 NOVA股票目前在50天移动均线34.35美元处寻找支撑。突破200日移动均线37.75美元可能会推动Sunnova Energy股价走向高点。 图表由stockcharts.com提供 上面的图表显示了7月29日的双顶突破,目标价格为53.00美元。 Sunnova Energy International Inc.的四年收入显示,该公司的收入比2017年增加了一倍多,达到2020年创纪录的1.608亿美元。 Sunnova能源在过去三年实现了两位数的收入增长。此外,在过去的五年里,复合年增长率达到了令人印象深刻的27.9%。 (来源:“Sunnova Energy International Inc.”MarketWatch,最后一次访问是2021年8月10日。) 前方是乐观的。 Sunnova Energy预计今年营收增速将加快至41.1%至2.269亿美元,紧随其后的是2022年45.2%至3.295亿美元的增速。(来源:“Sunnova Energy International Inc.(NOVA)”,雅虎!财经,最后一次访问是2021年8月10日。) 在过去的五年里,该公司连续四年实现了利息、税项、折旧和摊销前利润(EBITDA)收入,包括2020年创纪录的3250万美元。 (资料来源:MarketWatch,同前) 虽然Sunnova Energy International Inc.的收入和EBITDA一直不错,但其面临的障碍是未能产生公认会计原则(GAAP)每股收益(EPS)盈利能力。 (资料来源:MarketWatch,同前) 展望未来,分析师对Sunnova Energy International Inc.的估计从持续亏损到盈利不等。 普遍的估计是,该公司今年每股摊薄后将损失0.80美元,但一项估计是每股摊薄后利润为1.16美元。(来源:Yahoo!Finance,同前) 对于2022年,一致的预期是Sunnova Energy International Inc.将把每股摊薄股份的亏损缩小到0.46美元,乐观的估计是每股摊薄股份的收益为2.52美元。(来源:Yahoo!Finance,同前) Sunnova Energy的自由现金流(FCF)仍然非常负,因为该公司将资金用于在全国各地建设网络。我希望看到FCF的情况有所改善。 (资料来源:MarketWatch,同前) Sunnova Energy International Inc.面临的风险是其27亿美元的巨额债务,而该公司的现金为3.688亿美元。(来源:Yahoo!Finance,同前) 虽然这不是当务之急,但Sunnova Energy将需要解决其债务问题。随着收入的增加,转向正的FCF将有所帮助,因为这些资金可以用于减少债务。 Sunnova Energy International Inc.拥有广泛的机构所有权,340家机构持有其97.7%的股份。(来源:Yahoo!Finance,同前) 另一个好迹象是,内部人士在过去六个月里净买入了240万股NOVA股票。(来源:Yahoo!Finance,同前) 虽然Sunnova Energy的股票并不便宜,但我认为市场有理由为它支付溢价,因为随着中国努力实现碳中和,该公司在未来十年的潜力。

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