Are Marijuana Penny Stocks Still a Strong Play?

大麻便士股还是强势玩法吗?

2021-08-27 20:00:12 PROFIT

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There was a time when marijuana penny stocks were all the rage. They were, after all, among the best ways to see fast gains. Penny stocks are known for their ability to make massive swings with even relatively minor market moves. In the marijuana industry, where seismic event has followed seismic event in the years following 2014, penny stocks have shot up exponentially. The question now is: Do pot penny stocks still have the magic? In other words, do they still have the ability to provide huge gains in short periods? The answer is yes, but with a caveat. First, it very much depends on where the marijuana penny stocks are popping up. In the U.S., the market is still wide open. While some marijuana companies have proven to be more dominant than others (many of which I’ve written about extensively), the fact is that so much of the market remains untapped. Forget about states where marijuana remains illegal; even in states where the drug is legal, the market is relatively under-served due to restrictions on banking for marijuana companies and access to investment money from large institutions. Remember that California is the largest legal marijuana market on Earth (even if technically it’s not legal federally, but I won’t get into that right now). Suffice it to say that the California cannabis market is, for all intents and purposes, legal, and there are many opportunities for investors to profit from the growth we’ve seen in the state. Having said that, as mentioned earlier, the lack of banking support for both holding cash and loaning money has made the legal pot market’s growth in California slower than it could be. What’s more, much like in Canada, California continues to host a vibrant marijuana black market that eats into the revenue that would otherwise go to legal marijuana companies. The pot black market will become more and more vulnerable as time goes on and consumers transition from buying products from illegal dealers to buying them from legal retailers. But as that transition takes place, the black market will continue to be a thorn in the side of legal marijuana companies. This constrained market maturation process means that startup pot companies (and future pot penny stocks) have the ability to enter markets and surge. What’s more, due to the lack of institutional investment money available to U.S. marijuana companies and the barring of Canadian pot companies from entering the U.S. market, we have a situation in which small U.S. pot companies have the chance to grow and thrive longer before they might be acquired. An acquisition almost always benefits the investors holding shares of the acquired company. Holding shares of the company making the acquisition is more of a hit-and-miss matter. But if the smaller companies are acquired before they have a chance to go public, retail investors will be shut out from the gains from the acquisition news. Only angel investors, venture capitalists, and other insiders will see the big returns from those deals. Canada faces that problem, too. Even if an exciting new marijuana company were to emerge in Canada, many of the top competitors are so fat with cash that they would almost certainly attempt an acquisition, potentially before the new company has a chance to make an initial public offering. On the flip side, there are established marijuana stocks that are much more likely to expand internationally and take advantage of new market opportunities. Imagine if the U.S. were to federally legalize marijuana, followed almost immediately by Germany. Both countries have massive markets with huge opportunities for marijuana stock investors. Gaining exposure to both markets as much as possible could be a great play. But marijuana penny stocks, while they’ll grow rapidly due to the excitement of the new markets being legalized, will almost certainly lack the infrastructure, expertise, and capital to aggressively expand internationally. In that instance, larger pot stocks could easily outpace pot penny stocks if they’re able to take advantage of both market openings. The second thing to consider about marijuana penny stocks is what the companies are offering. Do they have a novel set of products? Are they targeting an under-served but lucrative demographic? Do they have methods of marijuana production that allow them to sell at much higher margins or at much lower prices compared to their competitors? In other words, is there something that makes the new penny pot stocks unique? There are many established players in the cannabis industry, so it’s getting harder and harder for individual marijuana stocks to stick out. But if a pot company can accomplish this differentiation by introducing an innovation, it will likely become flush with cash. The marijuana sector, after all, is one of the most lucrative and untapped markets on Earth. An innovator in the pot market could be a huge investment opportunity. That leads me to the most important question: do pot penny stocks have a higher price ceiling compared to established, higher-priced pot stocks? The short answer is yes. Of course, it’s easier to go from $1.00 to $2.00 per share than from $100.00 to $200.00 (if the prices are pegged to market cap, as they almost always are, to some extent). Furthermore, marijuana stocks with lower share prices are more enticing to retail investors. While there’s no difference between owning one share worth $100.00 and owning 100 shares worth $1.00 each, there’s a psychological aversion to owning fewer high-priced shares, compared to owning many more shares of a cheaper stock. The overall view from my perspective is that there are opportunities for both marijuana large-cap stocks and marijuana penny stocks. Depending on a number of factors, both could see exponential growth in the coming years. Having a varied portfolio would be the best way to gain exposure to all aspects of the market, though it’s worth noting that pot penny stocks are among the most volatile holdings.
曾经有一段时间,大麻便士股风靡一时。毕竟,它们是看到快速增长的最佳方式之一。 廉价股以其即使相对较小的市场波动也能大幅波动而闻名。在大麻行业,在2014年后的几年里,地震事件接踵而至,便士股呈指数级飙升。 现在的问题是:便士股还有魔力吗?换句话说,他们还有能力在短期内提供巨大的收益吗? 答案是肯定的,但有一个警告。 首先,这在很大程度上取决于大麻便士库存在哪里出现。 在美国,市场仍然是开放的。虽然一些大麻公司已经被证明比其他公司更占优势(我已经广泛地写过其中的许多),但事实是,如此多的市场仍未开发。 忘掉大麻仍然非法的州;即使在这种药物合法的州,由于对大麻公司的银行业务和从大型机构获得投资资金的限制,市场也相对服务不足。 请记住,加州是地球上最大的合法大麻市场(即使从技术上来说,它不是联邦合法的,但我现在不会深入讨论)。 只需说,加州大麻市场无论出于何种意图和目的,都是合法的,投资者有许多机会从我们在该州看到的增长中获利。 话虽如此,如前所述,由于缺乏银行对持有现金和贷款的支持,加州合法大麻市场的增长速度比可能的要慢。 此外,就像在加拿大一样,加州继续拥有一个充满活力的大麻黑市,蚕食了原本属于合法大麻公司的收入。 随着时间的推移和消费者从非法经销商购买产品过渡到从合法零售商购买产品,大麻黑市将变得越来越脆弱。但随着这一转变的发生,黑市将继续成为合法大麻公司的眼中钉。 这种受限制的市场成熟过程意味着创业公司(以及未来的便士股)有能力进入市场并飙升。 此外,由于美国大麻公司缺乏机构投资资金,以及加拿大大麻公司被禁止进入美国市场,我们面临的情况是,美国小型大麻公司在被收购之前有机会成长和繁荣更长时间。 收购几乎总是有利于持有被收购公司股份的投资者。持有进行收购的公司的股份更像是一件碰运气的事情。 但如果规模较小的公司在有机会上市之前被收购,散户投资者将被排除在收购消息的收益之外。只有天使投资者、风险资本家和其他内部人士才能从这些交易中看到巨大的回报。 加拿大也面临这个问题。即使加拿大出现了一家令人兴奋的新大麻公司,许多顶级竞争对手都拥有如此丰富的现金,以至于他们几乎肯定会试图收购,可能是在新公司有机会进行首次公开募股之前。 另一方面,现有的大麻库存更有可能在国际上扩张,并利用新的市场机会。 想象一下,如果美国联邦政府将大麻合法化,德国几乎立即紧随其后。这两个国家都有巨大的市场,对大麻股票投资者来说有巨大的机会。尽可能多地投资这两个市场可能是一个很好的选择。 但是,尽管大麻廉价股将因新市场合法化的兴奋而迅速增长,但几乎肯定缺乏基础设施、专业知识和资本来积极地在国际上扩张。 在这种情况下,如果大盘股能够利用两个市场机会,它们很容易超过大盘股。 关于大麻廉价股,要考虑的第二件事是这些公司提供什么。 他们有一套新颖的产品吗?他们的目标是服务不足但有利可图的人口吗?他们是否有大麻生产方法,使他们能够以比竞争对手更高的利润或更低的价格销售大麻? 换句话说,是不是有什么东西让新的便士锅股票独一无二? 大麻行业有许多老牌玩家,所以单个大麻库存越来越难脱颖而出。 但如果一家大麻公司能够通过引入创新来实现这种差异化,它可能会变得现金充裕。毕竟,大麻行业是地球上最有利可图和尚未开发的市场之一。大麻市场的创新者可能是一个巨大的投资机会。 这让我想到了一个最重要的问题:与公认的、价格更高的锅底股票相比,锅底便士股的价格上限是否更高? 简短的回答是肯定的。当然,从每股1.00美元到2.00美元比从100.00美元到200.00美元更容易(如果价格与市值挂钩,在某种程度上,它们几乎总是这样)。 此外,股价较低的大麻股票对散户投资者更有吸引力。虽然持有一股价值100.00美元的股票和持有100股价值1.00美元的股票没有区别,但与持有更多廉价股票相比,人们在心理上厌恶持有更少的高价股票。 从我的角度整体看,大麻大盘股和大麻便士股都有机会。 根据多种因素,这两个国家都可能在未来几年出现指数级增长。拥有一个多样化的投资组合将是获得市场各方面风险敞口的最佳方式,尽管值得注意的是,廉价股票是最不稳定的股票之一。

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