Will Lingering Supply Chain Issues Continue to Impact Marijuana Stocks?


2021-09-03 20:00:15 PROFIT


Are Pot Stocks Still Vulnerable to COVID-19 Issues? While COVID-19 appears to be (mercifully) on the ropes—at least in terms of serious cases—it doesn’t mean that, magically, everything will go back to normal. There will be lingering consequences, and they may very well impact marijuana stocks. One such lingering consequence is the disruption of supply chains. For instance, a shortage of semiconductors has begun to cause havoc in a number of industries, most notably auto manufacturing. (Source: “Saagar Enjeti: A Story of How Elites Sold Us Out and Trump Did Nothing About It,” The Hill, YouTube video, February 25, 2021.) The simple fact is, with COVID-19 precautions still in place (and likely to be in place for years to come), traveling and shipping goods between countries will become exponentially more difficult. What’s more, crowded factories and resource-extraction sites are potential outbreak hotbeds. All this has culminated in a very beleaguered global supply chain. Consider that the cost of sending a shipping container from Asia to Europe is roughly 10 times higher than it was in May 2020. The cost of shipping from Shanghai to Los Angeles has increased sixfold. (Source: “The World Economy’s Supply Chain Problem Keeps Getting Worse,” Bloomberg, August 25, 2021.) According to HSBC Holdings Plc (NYSE:HSBC), the global supply chain has become so fragile that one small accident “could easily have its effects compounded.” (Source: Ibid.) Now, you may be wondering: What does any of this have to do with pot stocks? Well, like any producer in our globalized economy, pot companies need raw materials, technologies, and access to resources. What’s more, as I’ve discussed in previous articles, cannabis stocks have been particularly vulnerable to pandemic-related economic slowdowns. If a new slowdown crops up due to supply chain issues, that could hurt share prices. But there’s a lot of good news for marijuana stock enthusiasts. As you can see in the following chart, pot stocks have made some major progress over the past 12 months, all of which have been during the COVID-19 pandemic. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com Considering how battered many cannabis stocks were when the pandemic arrived, and how resilient they’ve proven to be now, we’re seeing a new gush of enthusiasm for marijuana stocks. After all, marijuana was one of the first industries to see major share-price plunges at the outset of the pandemic. In other words, they’ve already taken COVID-19’s best shot and are still standing. That bodes extremely well for the future. Not only does the resiliency show that pot stocks can bounce back from pandemic-related downturns, the accomplishment actually makes future share-price falls less likely. Why? The reason cannabis stock prices fell in the first place was panic, and that’s less likely to happen this time around. You see, investors, faced with a once-in-a-century pandemic, were eager to fill their portfolios with safe-haven investments and other assets that would likely be more dependable in times of economic uncertainty. Now that investors have proof that marijuana stocks can withstand a tumultuous market, it means they’ll be less likely to abandon ship if we find ourselves in another pandemic. The second and more pertinent bit of good news about pot stocks is that, although supply chain issues will impact cannabis stocks, their impact will be relatively muted compared to the impact on other industries. That’s because there really isn’t much of an international legal marijuana trade (yet). Most of the product is grown, processed, and sold within domestic markets; marijuana really isn’t shipped internationally at this point. That’s due to major legal restrictions, but even in the U.S., where hundreds of millions of people now have access to legal pot, marijuana companies can’t legally ship their goods across state lines, let alone to other countries. That’s because state borders are administered by the federal government, which means the federal prohibition against marijuana applies to interstate trade. While technically, all of the U.S. is under federal jurisdiction, the feds’ policy on marijuana has been laissez-faire. States can regulate marijuana as they wish within their borders, but as far as the federal government is concerned, the drug is still illegal. As such, marijuana markets around the globe have had to develop robust, self-contained ecosystems. This, in turn, has helped those markets gain some degree of protection (though not, by any means, full immunity) from supply chain issues. In other words, investors don’t need to be overly concerned by the pandemic’s continued ability to plague our economic system. Investors can trust marijuana stocks to weather the storm and likely emerge even stronger on the other side. Analyst Take As the COVID-19 pandemic winds down, we no longer inhabit the same world as before. The virus has forced upon us many changes, and a good chunk of those changes will be long-lasting. But pot stocks have proven that they can take the worst the pandemic has to offer and remain strong. What’s more, one of the most concerning post-pandemic economic hangovers—disruptions to supply chains—is less likely to dramatically impact cannabis stocks. That all serves to make me bullish on marijuana stocks.
大麻股票仍然容易受到新冠肺炎问题的影响吗? 尽管新冠肺炎似乎(幸运的是)岌岌可危--至少在严重的情况下--但这并不意味着,神奇的是,一切都会恢复正常。将会有挥之不去的后果,它们很可能会影响大麻库存。 其中一个挥之不去的后果是供应链的中断。 例如,半导体短缺已经开始对许多行业造成破坏,最明显的是汽车制造业。(来源:“Saagar Enjeti:精英们如何出卖我们而特朗普对此无所作为的故事”,《国会山》,YouTube视频,2021年2月25日。) 简单的事实是,由于新冠肺炎的预防措施仍然存在(而且可能在未来几年都存在),国家间的旅行和货物运输将变得更加困难。此外,拥挤的工厂和资源开采场所是潜在的疫情温床。 所有这一切最终导致了一个陷入困境的全球供应链。 考虑一下,从亚洲向欧洲发送集装箱的成本大约是2020年5月的10倍。从上海到洛杉矶的海运费用增加了六倍。(来源:《世界经济的供应链问题不断恶化》,彭博社,2021年8月25日。) 根据汇丰控股有限公司(NYSE:HSBC)的说法,全球供应链已经变得如此脆弱,以至于一个小事故“很容易造成复杂的影响”。(来源:同上) 现在,你可能想知道:这些与大麻有什么关系? 嗯,像我们全球化经济中的任何生产者一样,大麻公司需要原材料、技术和资源。 此外,正如我在以前的文章中讨论的那样,大麻库存特别容易受到与流行病相关的经济放缓的影响。如果供应链问题导致新一轮经济放缓,可能会损害股价。 但对大麻股票爱好者来说,有很多好消息。 正如你在下面的图表中所看到的,在过去的12个月里,大麻库存取得了一些重大进展,所有这些都是在新冠肺炎疫情期间。 图表由stockcharts.com提供 考虑到当疫情到来时,许多大麻库存受到了多么大的打击,以及它们现在被证明是多么有弹性,我们看到了对大麻库存的新热情。 毕竟,大麻是疫情开始时第一批股价大幅下跌的行业之一。换句话说,他们已经拍下了新冠肺炎最好的镜头,而且还站着。 这对未来来说是个好兆头。这种弹性不仅表明大麻股可以从与流行病相关的低迷中反弹,而且这一成就实际上降低了未来股价下跌的可能性。 为什么?大麻库存价格下跌的原因首先是恐慌,这一次不太可能发生。 你看,面对百年一遇的流行病,投资者渴望用避险投资和其他在经济不确定时期可能更可靠的资产来填充他们的投资组合。 现在投资者有证据表明大麻库存可以经受住动荡的市场,这意味着如果我们发现自己陷入另一场流行病,他们不太可能放弃。 关于大麻库存的第二个也是更相关的好消息是,尽管供应链问题将影响大麻库存,但与对其他行业的影响相比,其影响相对较小。 这是因为目前还没有多少国际合法的大麻贸易。大部分产品在国内市场种植、加工和销售;大麻在这一点上真的不是国际运输的。 这是由于主要的法律限制,但即使在美国,数亿人现在可以获得合法大麻,大麻公司也不能合法地越过州界运送货物,更不用说运往其他国家了。 这是因为州边界由联邦政府管理,这意味着联邦对大麻的禁令适用于州际贸易。 虽然从技术上来说,整个美国都在联邦管辖之下,但联邦调查局对大麻的政策一直是自由放任的。各州可以在其境内随意监管大麻,但就联邦政府而言,这种药物仍然是非法的。 因此,全球各地的大麻市场必须发展强大的、自给自足的生态系统。这反过来又帮助这些市场从供应链问题中获得了某种程度的保护(尽管无论如何都不是完全豁免)。 换句话说,投资者不需要过度担心这种流行病持续困扰我们经济体系的能力。投资者可以相信大麻股会经受住这场风暴,并可能在另一边表现得更强。 分析员采取 随着新冠肺炎疫情的平息,我们不再生活在同一个世界。 病毒迫使我们发生了许多变化,这些变化的很大一部分将是长期的。但大麻库存已经证明,它们可以承受疫情带来的最坏情况,并保持强劲。 此外,最令人担忧的疫情后经济后遗症之一--供应链中断--不太可能对大麻库存产生巨大影响。 所有这些都让我看好大麻股票。