Cowen Analysts Track Cannabis Market Trends in New Report


2021-12-08 22:46:00 Business Times


In its THEMES 2022 handbook, which focuses on cannabis and 13 other areas, investment bank Cowen stated that its analysts view U.S. federal cannabis legalization as inevitable and provided various industry predictions. Cowen analysts estimate in the report, published Dec. 6, that the U.S. cannabis industry’s total available market will reach $84 billion in 2026. Below are some other observations, views and predictions outlined in the report. States’ Growth Whether U.S. federal legalization occurs in 2022, which as the THEMES report declares “is conceivable … either as a result of bipartisan legislation ahead of the November midterm elections, or potentially in the lame duck period,” states with large populations are still growing their cannabis markets and garnering public support, analysts say. In addition, states have served as leaders in how they incorporate social justice into their legalization efforts, according to the report, which notes the policymaking intent of social equity programs. “COVID-19 has also served to accelerate state-level legalization, particularly in geographies with industries hit especially hard by the pandemic,” the report states. “New York State notably passed its cannabis legislation on March 31, 2021, relatively soon after its introduction earlier in the same year, and in partial response to a budgetary gap caused by loss of tourism and hospitality revenues.” States that could experience significant growth over the next several years include New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Virginia and Arizona, per THEMES. By 2025, Cowen analysts predict, those markets could reach $3.1 billion, $2.8 billion, $1.4 billion, $1 billion, and $2.4 billion, respectively. Eventually, New York could become the second-largest cannabis market in the U.S. behind California, with $5 billion in sales, the analysts estimate. Multi-State Operators Expanding Multi-state operators (MSOs) have merged with and acquired companies to expand, providing clear vectors of growth across the country. “MSOs have layered in assets to realize improved profitability from vertical integration within each state while also growing regional, and in some cases national, brands despite the structural limitations of a state-by-state legal framework,” according to the report. Between 2019 and 2020, the 15 leading U.S. MSOs increased their average adjusted Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) from -33% to -22%, per THEMES. Cowen analysts say they are keeping an eye on MSOs with the potential to impact state-legal markets such as New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Virginia. The report states: “In addition, we see opportunities for MSOs to create optionality for boosts to profitability as they add ancillary asset-light businesses to their portfolios. New models emerging around electronic payments and other business service platforms are poised for growth as state and Federal-level legalization frameworks evolve, and these enabling assets could also provide early mover advantages to the MSOs acquiring or developing them.” Various Lobbying Approaches and Paths to Federal Legalization The THEMES report specifically highlighted that it’s possible that the U.S. federal government could pass legislation that would defer cannabis legalization to states. RELATED: Cannabis Industry Stakeholders, Policymakers Share Perspectives on States Reform Act “This should resolve the current 280E federal prohibition on tax deductibility of expenses by cannabis businesses, and would also allow cannabis companies traditional access to U.S. securities exchanges, commercial banking services, and capital markets,” the report states. Cowen analysts believe that cannabis legislation is unlikely to receive the necessary bipartisan support to pass if it includes social justice measures, such as criminal record expungement and social equity provisions. The report states: “Should the Senate fail to reach agreement on a STATES Act approach, we believe that SAFE Banking legislation would be enacted as a fallback position. This could be kept narrow to only address access to commercial banking and insurance, or it could serve as the foundation for a compromise bill that stops short of legalization but offers relief from the 280E tax burden and opens cannabis to capital markets, including stock exchange listings. There would likely be a Federal excise tax to offset the cost of 280E relief and to fund some social justice measures.” Various cannabis industry lobbyists have sought to move different pieces of legislation forward, “diluting the impact of lobbying efforts,” according to the report. Cowen will track how lobbyists can be unified in how they approach federal legalization, per THEMES. “We will view signals of coordination positively, while evidence of continued fragmentation could augur negatively for any wide-ranging Federal cannabis relief,” the report states. The Cannabis Travel Association (CTAI) will host its annual virtual Cannabis Travel Summit from Dec.14-15. The summit, Cannabis Travel: Now and Next, will feature a range of guest speakers, cannabis travel data, educational sessions and presentations, networking opportunities, and more, according to the association. Barb Newton, president and CEO of the California Travel Association, will be this year's keynote speaker. The event will also share CTAI's 2021 State of Cannabis Travel Data Publication, with contributing sources from Headset, New Heights Cannabis, MMGY Travel Intelligence, and association team members. "As a global travel industry rebuilds from the devastation of COVID-19, the essential cannabis-related travel trend offers a tremendous opportunity," said CTAI Founder and Chairman Brian Applegarth. "Our annual summit brings us together as a community to exchange information, network, voice concerns, share successes, and problem-solve together at the intersection of cannabis and travel." Interested attendees can register for the event online here. As federal legislators continue to debate the finer points of a broad spending bill, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), a newly published version of the legislation excludes cannabis banking reform language that had been previously included.  Marijuana Moment first reported the news on Tuesday.  The U.S. House has repeatedly passed the framework of the SAFE Banking Act, which would provide a legitimate legal avenue for financial institutions to work with private cannabis businesses. The addition of the banking reform language in the NDAA was the House’s latest attempt to get this policy approved as law. The U.S. Senate, meanwhile, had not yet acted on any version of the banking reform bill. And as the NDAA works its way through the legislature, U.S. senators won’t have a chance to chime in on the SAFE Banking Act at this point, either. “I'm disappointed #SAFEBanking is not included in the NDAA bill text released today,” U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter, a sponsor of the banking reform bill, tweeted. “The Senate insists on burying its head in the sand and deny every opportunity to reform our outdated cannabis laws to align state and federal law to improve public safety.” After years of debate on the matter, the question (and the timing) of banking reform remains elusive in Congress. "We see the consequences every day of the lack of banking access, from the rash of dispensary robberies to the ongoing challenges of minority and small business owners to secure capital," Steven Hawkins, CEO of US Cannabis Council, said in a public statement. "The SAFE Banking Act would provide urgently needed relief to cannabis businesses of all sizes and put wind in the sails of the broader push to end federal cannabis prohibition."
投资银行考恩(Cowen)在其《2022年主题手册》中表示,其分析师认为美国联邦大麻合法化是不可避免的,并提供了各种行业预测。该手册侧重于大麻和其他13个领域。 考恩分析师在12月6日发布的报告中估计,美国大麻行业的总可用市场将在2026年达到840亿美元。 以下是报告概述的其他一些观察、观点和预测。 国家成长 分析师表示,美国联邦合法化是否会在2022年实现,正如主题报告所宣称的那样,“可以想象……要么是11月中期选举前两党立法的结果,要么是可能在跛脚鸭时期”,人口众多的州仍在扩大大麻市场,并获得公众支持。 此外,根据该报告,各国在如何将社会正义纳入其合法化努力方面发挥了主导作用,该报告指出了社会公平方案的决策意图。 该报告称:“新冠肺炎也有助于加快州一级的合法化,尤其是在行业受疫情打击特别严重的地区。”“值得注意的是,纽约州在2021年3月31日通过了大麻立法,在同年早些时候引入后不久,这部分是对旅游和酒店收入损失造成的预算缺口的回应。” 按主题计算,未来几年可能会经历显著增长的州包括纽约、宾夕法尼亚、新泽西、弗吉尼亚和亚利桑那。Cowen分析师预测,到2025年,这些市场可能分别达到31亿美元、28亿美元、14亿美元、10亿美元和24亿美元。 分析师估计,最终,纽约可能会成为仅次于加州的美国第二大大麻市场,销售额为50亿美元。 多状态算子展开 多州运营商合并和收购公司以扩大业务,为全国各地的增长提供了明确的载体。 该报告称:“尽管各州法律框架存在结构性限制,但MSO已经将资产分层,以实现各州纵向一体化的盈利能力提高,同时也在发展区域品牌,在某些情况下是全国性品牌。” 2019年至2020年间,美国15家领先的MSO将每个主题的平均调整后利息、税项、折旧和摊销前利润(EBITDA)从-33%提高到-22%。 考恩分析师表示,他们正在关注有可能影响新泽西州、纽约州、宾夕法尼亚州和弗吉尼亚州等州法律市场的MSO。 该报告指出:“此外,我们看到MSO有机会为提高盈利能力创造选择,因为它们在投资组合中增加了附属的轻资产业务。随着州和联邦一级合法化框架的发展,围绕电子支付和其他商业服务平台出现的新模式正准备增长,这些赋能资产也可以为收购或开发它们的MSO提供先行者优势。“ 联邦合法化的各种游说方法和途径 主题报告特别强调,美国联邦政府有可能通过立法,将大麻合法化推迟到各州。 相关:大麻行业利益攸关方、政策制定者分享对《国家改革法》的看法 该报告称:“这应该解决目前280E联邦政府对大麻企业费用免税的禁令,并允许大麻公司传统地进入美国证券交易所、商业银行服务和资本市场。” 考恩分析师认为,如果大麻立法包括社会正义措施,如消除犯罪记录和社会公平条款,它不太可能获得通过所需的两党支持。 该报告指出:“如果参议院未能就《州法》的方法达成一致,我们认为安全银行立法将被颁布作为备用立场。这可以缩小范围,只解决获得商业银行和保险的问题,或者它可以作为一项妥协法案的基础,该法案没有合法化,但可以减轻280E税收负担,并向资本市场开放大麻,包括证券交易所上市。可能会有联邦消费税来抵消280E救济的成本,并为一些社会正义措施提供资金。“ 根据该报告,各种大麻行业游说者试图推进不同的立法,“稀释游说努力的影响”。 考恩将根据主题跟踪游说者如何在如何接近联邦合法化方面团结一致。 该报告称:“我们将积极看待协调的信号,而持续分裂的证据可能是任何广泛的联邦大麻救济的负面征兆。” 大麻旅行协会(CTAI)将于12月14日至15日主办其年度虚拟大麻旅行峰会。 据该协会称,峰会“大麻旅行:现在和未来”将有一系列特邀演讲者、大麻旅行数据、教育会议和演讲、网络机会等。加州旅游协会主席兼首席执行官巴布·牛顿将是今年的主旨发言人。 该活动还将分享CTAI的2021年大麻旅行数据发布,来自耳机、新高度大麻、MMGY旅行情报和协会团队成员的贡献来源。 CTAI创始人兼董事长布莱恩·阿普尔加思(Brian Applegarth)表示:“随着全球旅游业从新冠肺炎的灾难中重建,与大麻相关的旅行趋势提供了一个巨大的机会。”“我们的年度峰会将我们作为一个社区聚集在一起,在大麻和旅行的交汇点上交流信息、建立网络、表达关切、分享成功并共同解决问题。” 有兴趣的与会者可以在这里在线注册。 随着联邦立法者继续就一项广泛的支出法案《国防授权法案》(NDAA)的细节进行辩论,该法案的新发布版本排除了以前包括的大麻银行改革语言。 大麻时刻周二首次报道了这一消息。 美国众议院一再通过《安全银行法》的框架,该框架将为金融机构与私人大麻企业合作提供合法的法律途径。在NDAA中加入银行改革的语言是众议院为使这项政策获得批准成为法律而做出的最新尝试。 与此同时,美国参议院尚未就银行改革法案的任何版本采取行动。随着NDAA在立法机构的顺利通过,美国参议员也没有机会在这一点上插手《安全银行法》。 银行改革法案的发起人、美国众议员埃德·佩尔穆特(Ed Perlmutter)在推特上说:“我对今天发布的NDAA法案文本中没有包括#安全银行感到失望。”“参议院坚持把头埋在沙子里,拒绝任何改革我们过时的大麻法律的机会,以调整州和联邦法律,改善公共安全。” 经过多年的争论,银行改革的问题(以及时机)在国会仍然难以捉摸。 “我们 每天都要看到缺乏银行准入的后果,从 对少数族裔和小企业持续挑战的药房抢劫 所有者获得资本,“史蒂文 美国大麻理事会首席执行官霍金斯在公开声明中说。“《安全银行法》将提供急需的 缓解了各种规模的大麻企业,并为 更广泛地推动结束联邦大麻禁令。“